Now that the leaders are all in jail, most likely having been ratted out by someone they thought was on their side, we can look at what succeeded and what failed in their mission.
Now comes the legal side of the Malheur Wildlife Refuge Incident. Again, the Feds are NOT doing the usual thing. After the bullets ordered by #ButcherOfBurns, OR Gov. Kate Brown subsided, and everyone surrendered out on the highway and were arrested, they were dragged to Portland and they appeared in Federal Magistrate's Court yesterday. The charges they did face? Feds stacked it up, right?
Wrong. The remaining rebels are each charged with ONE count of obstructing Federal Officers, a Class C or D felony which CAN be plead down to a misdemeaner (and probably will be, as I will explain). Notably, there are NO firearms violations charged, there are NO charges for the considerable theft/damage to Federal Property which occurred, and there are NO TERROR-RELATED charges (that's the biggie here). Now, in court, and you've seen this a million times on Wolf Films TeeVee shows, the arraignment prosecutor argued for no bail, argued dangerous peeps, argued out-of-state peeps, argued flight risk, all that, but additional hearings were set nearly immediately, so bail will likely be granted soon.
So, when #KorruptKate demanded that the occupation be terminated with extreme prejudice, it WAS, but only in the case of the firebrand Finicum, who, by the best accounts so far, seemed to desire Suicide By Cop, and got it. If you recall #KillerKate's speech in Salem last week though, she wanted the Federal book thrown at the occupiers, and SHE has been rebuffed. Oregon charges might be added, but for what? Being there? No, it's all Federal property, and the Feds want out of it and are getting out. Those additional Oregon charges, BTW, would have to be filed in Harney County, and no DA there wants to touch them.
End it, and give no opportunity for a showdown in Court later, those are the obviously the orders out of Washington. Martyrs are gonna seek martyrdom, that's what they do. NOW it makes sense that the Feds sought no warrants in Court. They could easily have gotten arrest warrants for a slew of felony charges, but didn't. Now I can see why. The handwriting was on the wall for the Feds when they saw the large and sympathetic crowd waiting for the Bundys and Finicum in John Day. This rebellion was about to spread. They stopped that, and now they want to deny the rebels their all-important soap box, and will likely succeed in that, too. There ARE some thinkers on the Federal side. Too bad they are stuck playing such a rigged game.
Bundy's success: he HAS raised the Federal Lands Debate to a National Discussion. It might even make it as a platform plank in the GOPe Party Platform this year.
Bundy's failures: He was never in command of his Militia. Finicum gave HIM orders. You can't lead from the rear, unless you INTEND to be a REMF*, which is terrible leadership. Bundy was NO logistician, supply for his mission was a major issue. G-2 (Intelligence) was a HUGE failure. Bundy's case should have resembled that of the French Partisans in WW2 because the locals were on his side for the most part, but he never involved them until right at the end, when he and Finicum put together the show in John Day that he was enroute to when the Feds decided to end his game. From Day One, Bundy should have talked to the local ranchers one at a time to determine friend from foe, and set possible new refuge ground if his first choice became untenable.
To the extent that the Feds are buddy-buddy with the press, the story will now go away, unless one of the major GOPe candidates wants to keep the Lands Issue alive as a campaign issue.
* REMF = Rear Echelon Mo-Fo, a derogatory term for those of rank/leadership in a war who never faced bullets. The term may have started in an earlier war, but it came into wide use in the Vietnam War.
All those who will be convinced by Bundy and his merry little band have been convinced, and all those dead-set against Bundy, his work and his merry little band will never be convinced.
What happens in conflict situations when a true stalemate develops? Let's look at a few conflicts from a historical viewpoint:
WW1: The static warfare of no movement resulted in HUGE casualties, as both sides registered their artillery accurately and emplaced their machine guns carefully to have overlapping fields of fire. The trench systems that resulted killed almost as many troops as the bullets, as the living conditions in them were atrocious. Note that when the USA came into the war, and the allies developed the first tanks, as crude as the tanks were and as green as the American troops were, mobility finally developed, Germany was soon moving backwards, and the war was over within a few months.
WW2: The start of the war. The "sitzkrieg" (translation: "sitting war") developed, as Hitler's army was not prepared to take objectives on two fronts simultaneously. After finishing up in the East by crushing Poland, Hitler was able to bring his forces to bear against Belgium and France, and the Sitzkrieg was soon over and the entire Continent was soon in German hands.
Korea: The stalemate of THAT war of movement only developed when the strong forces of China and the US were limited in their warfare by political concerns. The Democratic Administration of Harry Truman did not want to widen the war with the objective of defeating China, because he feared that the USSR would intervene, with perhaps the use of nuclear weapons. China was limited politically by Russia, who supplied their military hardware and the technicians to run it.
Vietnam: Stalemate developed early, despite the US' development and quick perfection of airmobile envelopment. We owned the day skies, they owned the night ground. That, combined with a Democratic Administration's reluctance to actually win the war, resulted in first, stalemate, then defeat for the USA.
War on Terror: May not even BE winnable, but if it is, we have made no proper moves to win. If you include Desert Storm, yes, we won the battlefield in that limited-objective operation, but no, we failed to consider the role of defeating Saddam himself, so all that brilliant battlefield work went for naught. In today's fighting, 25 years later, we have ZERO desire or strategy to win at all, and lacking such, should not be at war.
Back to Harney County, Oregon.
With stalemate the condition of the conflict, little can be done, and there are signs that the resolve of the militia is weakening. Today's paper mentions that the militia might abandon the Malheur Refuge and move over to Grant County, which puts them 150 miles closer to Portland, which will make the liberals West of the Cascades VERY nervous. Grant County is barely East of the Cascades, and parts of it are less than a two-hour drive from Portland. Imagine the Janet Reno wannabe, Temporary Governor "Korrupt" Kate Brown may get nervous enough to actually employ force against the militia, and if she does, they have won the day, whether they survive, are jailed, or die in battle. Korrupt Krackpot Kate already tried to steamroll the FBI into attacking the militia out in Harney County, but they wisely refused her screamy demands.
Stalemate ALWAYS favors the side with the best logistics, and that is NOT the militia. They have had supply problems since Day One. The FBI knows this. KKKate ought to know this, but she is handicapped in the same way Gauleiter Janet Reno was: they both are gender-confused people.
Cruz, Rubio and iJEB! have bought into a failed concept, amnesty, most likely at the of Reince Priebus and his gang of lefty thieves.
This is the RNC position that GOPes can't win without the "support" of the invaders, so invader ass must be kissed. The invaders realize that Mister smiley-nice GOPe does NOT bring welfare dollars, and they can't eat the soccer balls previously given them at photo ops. The (D)onks allowed them to invade the USA, have made Government speak their lingo and have given them welfare dollars. The invaders don't give a flying fig about our Constitution, and they are in no rush to replace the blacks, who they dispise, as the bottom class of Americans. They are content to let the (D)s protect them in their uncertain status. All that "path to citizenship" crap is eyewash, put out there to dull the fervor of deporting them as we know we need to. The DNC has out-thought the RNC on this issue, and trotting out iJEB!, Cruz or Rubio with a van full of soccer balls changed nothing. Beck probably knew that, but he is so desperate to replace Rush at the pinnacle of talk radio that he has fallen in with these culture killers in the Establishment RNC.
....is something I have the basic equipment for, but haven't done yet. The main reason is that lead bullets ("boolits") have to be speed controlled unless you crimp on a copper Gas Check, or else the hot powder burns lead onto the bore, and this can happen in just a few rounds. This limits lead bullet usefulness to practice and target shooting, for the most part. Generally, you don't want your lead bullets going over 1,000 fps. Most boolit people have some Sooper Secrit lube that they they somehow get to stick to the lead boolit (soaking it on, baking it on, squishing it on under pressure), and various claims are made that (whatever) lube cuts down barrel leading or even prevents it entirely. I am SOOOO skeptical, sorry, and I have the barrel-scrubbing calluses to prove it.
Leading is a factor of lead alloy hardness (Brinell), heat of the powder flame and speed of the bullet after ignition of the primer and powder. Leading occurs by flame-cutting of the base of the lead boolit by the powder burning, or by smearing of the sides of the lead boolit in the bore as it travels from the chamber to the muzzle, or a combo of both types (the usual case). The general solution is to go to bullets with copper skins, either plating or actual copper jackets which the lead cores are swaged (pressed) into. Those are expensive, running 1/2 again as much to 2 1/2 times as much as a cast lead boolit bought outright, or four times as much as one cast at home. Even more expensive is the all-copper bullet.
Along comes a new anti-leading process entirely. Not a lube of any kind. POWDER COATING!
UPDATED with great comments, to which I have added my editorial musings...
...and the quest is to find a source for reloading data to push 9mm Luger to +P+ pressure for a carbine.
It seems that the lawyers have scared off all the folks who have modified race guns and shoot IDPA Major Power Nine, and they won't publish their data. My carbine is a KelTec Sub Rifle 2000, with aftermarket spring & buffer block. It's fully-supported chamber is fine for +P+. I've been shooting NATO in it, and it loves that ammo, which is +P, sort-of.
To aid in the quest, I've laid in some Ramshot Silhouette powder and some Hodgdon HS-6 powder. I have some Xtreme Bullets 124gr CPRN and some once-fired brass, mostly Federal. All I need now is the data.
I intend to start by duping the NATO load. Father Frog's page shows me that. After that, my development will trend towards max loads of slower powders, since I have a long barrel to accelerate those FMJ pills with. I'm thinking of IMR 4227, but I only have room for 7 grains or so.
I wish I could find out what the Canadian Defense Ministry used for powder in their famous "Canadian Parabellum" loading, a HOT SMG round. They haven't made any since the Fifties when the West went to NATO, then later to STANAG standard. Supposedly, that round would wreck anything except a Sten or a FN Hi-power. It also used a lighter bullet to give more room for powder.
The one daredevil I found data from said that he loads up to 7.2-gr of HS-6 behind a 115 FMJ and barely makes 1350fps in a 4.9" racegun barrel. That gives him his Major Nine Power Factor, just barely. That's 450 #/' ME. That load should make 465 #/' ME. In a carbine, that should give 1750 fps and 782 #/' ME. Hornady's tables say that makes the carbine a useful battle tool* out to 200 yards or so. Pressure is a guess, but likely to be 37KCUP or under. Proof is 42KCUP.
For comparison, the above figures resemble what a normal .357 Remington Magnum 125-gr JHP will do out of a lever rifle.
Interesting quest. Right on the edge. Yes. Herr Luger would be impressed.
Note that in that post, I never said that I was against the use of Militia, and I think that if you had followed this blog for much of the eleven years it has been out here, you should know that by now. I fully support the idea of Militia, and while I don't fit into either category of it, organized or un-organized anymore, due to age, there is nothing to say that I couldn't assist a militia unit to become operational. In fact, I performed duty in the Air National Guard along lines connected to this (logistics planning, exercise, testing and evaluation in Organized Militia units).
The Internet is a fine tool for assisting the assembly of Militia, at least for now. If the Militia "movement" really gets going, I expect the Government to attempt to end the use of Internet for that purpose. Good luck to them, there are many, many savvy IT people who would help establish a new network almost immediately.
How does one get a militia unit going? Talk is cheap so I'll spend some of that coin...
To start with, a leader is needed. The definition of leader here is largely one of communicator. The leader is probably going to have been a good communicator all along. The leader decides to form a unit, and when drawing the plans, the leader FIRST considers mission: the employment of the unit, and it's scope of mission. This could range from defending a few blocks of a neighborhood against invaders from outside of that area, all the way up to defending large chunks of a major political sub-division, such as several counties. Note that the drift of this paragraph is on defense of a slice of land and it's buildings, etc. This is how most militia units come into being: they are NOT force-projection units, they ARE areal defense units. Militia can act in force projection, but to do so requires a huge leap of transition from a few folks defending their neighborhood when the usual order fails, up to and including a unit capable of travelling long distances, supporting itself away from it's home area and performing missions NOT related to simple areal protection. This is several orders of magnitude more complex in all organizational and logistical respects.
To relate this to the Harney County, Oregon situation, Ammon Bundy brought his people hundreds of miles and then took over a Government compound, declaring it and the extensive land it controlled to have changed hands and not be controlled by the Bureau of Land Management anymore. That's a tall order for a militia mission, and the military would probably not even try that without the use of a battalion-sized unit (close to 1,000 troops). If contesting for land in this size range, a military unit might have to be a Division or greater. Bundy does not have even a platoon available, maybe not more than a rifle squad. (See this Wiki, down a ways under "Armies") Even if Bundy were to attract a few hundred more folks to join his militia, he wouldn't have more than two companies at best. Given the remoteness of his objective, at least half of his force will have to be engaged in resupply at all times. Logistics theory and practice does not favor success of his operation. Weather in that area is barely better than sub-arctic at present, with daytime highs in the twenties and night-time lows near or below zero. If this report is accurate, Bundy's militia did not come properly equipped to hold the territory they have seized.
The lesson here is quite clear: if you are to have a successful militia, and we NEED successful militia, it has to be formed from a plan which includes it's SPECIFIC mission, not a political concept, but a military mission, definable in military terms. Ammon Bundy's militia seems to have been formed more along the lines of a political debating society, what we call an "activist" group nowadays, but as one who has performed military duty out in the cold Northwest winters, AND one who has performed in a debating society/activist group, I'm here to tell you that there is ZERO crossing-over between the two experiences. Sorry, Commenter Richard, I do concur with your political objectives, but they cannot be accomplished this way in Harney County, Oregon.
I am totally for Militia. Militia have two purposes: suppressing crime very locally when civil authorities cannot, and suppressing tyrannical Government on a scale up to National. With a HUGE stretch of the imagination, one might say that Bundy the Younger has the second mission in mind. That's all I am going to give him, because everything else about his occupation of the Malheur Wildlife Refuge HQ buildings is a disaster.
First, he claims to lead a paramilitary force, a Militia. If you lead such a force, as Commander, you have many responsibilities, such as training and equipping your troops, and maintaing good order and discipline throughout all phases of operations. Bundy seems to have planned well enough as to logistics, but that is all we can see or know about his outfit. The biggest decision for any Militia leader is when to deploy on an operation. Sometimes this is obvious, such as against criminal gangs terrorizing your Militia operating area. Sometimes it is NOT obvious, like the Malheur operation.
Malheur is just another piece of territory controlled by the Bureau of Land Management. Oregon has many such pieces of land. Has Bundy declared war upon the BLM and by logical extension, the entire Federal Government? A case can be built that such is his actual operation, and if so, it deserves to fail, and I will now tell you why.
The Federal Government has too much power, uses that power in very ugly ways, and needs to be dialed back to a Constitutional level. Okay, now that we have THAT out in the open, how is that BEST done? Bundy has apparently decided that it is best done by Militia occupying land and buildings, and he had moved his Militia to do that. Here is why he will fail, and then I will list why his failure will set back the program to dial back the Federal Government's power by many, many years.
Just like the two previous Militia operations, Bundy Ranch and Sugar Pine Mine, the tactic of the Feds will be to do nothing but wait. After a month or so, if previous form is followed, the Militia will declare victory and go home. Their declaration of victory will be hollow, however. They will have achieved NOTHING permanent, and the Feds, on the other hand, will have more press-fodder with which to vilify the entire idea of Militia. In other words, the Malheur operation will be a failure, because the only advantage at the end will go to the Feds, not the Militia.
Okay, by now, you must be screaming at your computer monitor, "Hey Rivrdog, if YOU are so smart, how would YOU stop these abuses of Federal power." That would be a fair question to ask, and I would answer it by saying that Militia needs to be prepared, it needs to be openly prepared, it needs to be universally prepared, and when the fight finally comes, the Feds will lose, because they will be seen as having their jackbooted thugs killing ordinary Americans for merely exercising their right to defend themselves. I believe that the mere raising of Militias in an open manner will eventually provoke the Feds into an armed confrontation, and no deployment of Militia is necessary. We wait, they will come to us. Part of the Second Amendment EXPRESSLY permits formation and maintenance of Militia.
We are already at war with the Feds, and the Feds are fighting this war with Psychological Warfare strategies and tactics, and we are losing it so far, mostly because we have failed to prepare for the use of PsyWar. In other words, Bundy has oversimplified the PsyWar (if he sees the use of PsyWar at all, I'm not sure he does). He sees it as a local thing (he has already lost that skirmish, the locals hate his ops) and maybe as a national thing to try to galvanize the right-wing base. He DOES NOT see it as a fight which involves every American citizen, as it eventually must.
More simply put, the Feds and their sycophant allies in the MSM now have a huge public relations weapon with which to bash the Right. It will also be used to bash the Second Amendment and it will be used as the basis for MORE federal regulation of public lands, not LESS regulation.
Bundy has lost before he started, and every day he stays at Malheur, the loss gets worse.
The feeling is, that the major attack on it which will be the hallmark of Obama's failed presidency is but weeks away, maybe days away.
Yesterday, Obama made a speech about terrorism and internal security. I listened. As the lies started to flow, I was lulled momentarily by the fact that it was all, well, so BOILERPLATE. We will kill ISIS....yada-yada. Home-grown terrorists are harder to catch and get ahead of....yada-yada. I almost zoned the prez totally out as I was doing scut work in the kitchen at the time.
Then the alarm bells started going off. the "Ruh-Roh Alarm" sounded loudly. I re-focused. I followed Fox' handy talking points crawl at the bottom of the screen. The Obama-rama Show wrapped up, and the alarms were still going off.
Why? What alarms? Glad you asked!
OBAMA NEVER MENTIONED GUNS IN THAT SPEECH, NOT ONCE.
He not only didn't mention it, but his two favorite follow-ons were missing: no words on "it's Congress' fault", no "It's the NRA's fault", no "gun-show loophole's" fault. Especially, no "I have a pen and a phone" reference to Executive Action.
Here's a little thing from my military days: when you are at war, a shooting war, and you stumble right onto the enemy and THEY DON'T SHOOT AT YOU, that is worth some brain work to find out why. In infantry warfare, when this happens with reconnaisance patrols, the usual reason is that the enemy has something major going on nearby they don't want you to discover (a hidden HQ, for example), so they let you on through without resistance, hoping that the major-something doesn't get discovered and quickly attacked by a larger force than you represent.
I had this vibe about Obama's speech yesterday. Just now, I got up at 0645, went downstairs to get a clean coffee cup, and while I was getting it, Fox News was expounding on the thoughts I have just expressed, above. Apparently, they did some digging (or just read some O-flunky's lips), and Fox has concluded, as I did yesterday, that some Gun Control Executive Action is forthcoming, fairly immediately.
Well, if Bloomie was in on it, it will bring at least a National Capacity Limit for magazines (resurrect Clinton's, most likely), likely some sort of "Assault Weapons Ban" (again, resurrect Clinton's, but tighten it up so that chosen manufacturers can't grease palms like Bill Ruger did with his Ranch Rifle and buy their way out of it). I'm guessing that there won't be confiscation in it, for now. Obama is likely content to leave that up to Hillary, who has said that she would go down that road. If Hillary doesn't make it to POTUS, there won't be Federal confiscations, except maybe for a 50-cal ban and grab. 50BMG weapons are at risk because they are one RCH (look it up, it's military slang) away from being designated as Destructive Devices now, and that could be done easily by edict.
So, it's time to ask: if POTUS tries to kill the 2A by edict (Clinton did it with Congress, you will recall), what will the GOPe Congress do?
Absolutely Nothing. Need proof: Look at the super-pork bill they just passed. These are NOT the Conservative droids you are looking for...
What will Yours Truly do? Absolutely Nothing. Yep, I am not going to go to war over anything less than active confiscations, which I WILL use my skills against. Why am I promising nothing? You haven't read this blog for long, have you, my friends? If you had, you will note that I advised the purchase of all firearms, magazines and ammo that might be banned from sale, way back in '08, when it began to look like Obama was going to get the (D) nomination. If you DIDN'T follow this blog, and DIDN'T accumulate your weapons since then, you have an immediate task to do so, if you want any.
Whatever my blogging firm calls itself these days, it has a bad case of servers not talking to each other. I communicate with my blog's input side on three, sometimes four different devices: phone, tablet, desktop and wife's kitchen computer. They run, in that order, new android, old android, Linux Ubuntu and WinSeven. It seems that the blogging company which changed it's name (used to be called Six Apart) routes each request for access to a different server, depending on the operating system of the requestor. How farged up is THAT? It may be the cheapie solution so that they don't have to write complex software to handle ALL operating systems on one server, but it is definitely NOT the most secure solution. I wrote up a Ticket, and their techhie answered for me to keep changing my password until I got in. Now THAT advice means that anyone with the username and access to the user-named email account can get into the blog.
Is it time for the government to REQUIRE standardized levels of commercial account security?
...and no, "fantasy football" is only a tiny part of it.
I read a deeeep post by blogger "Og, the Neanderpundit". He's not as prolific a blogger as he used to be, but then, neither am I, so machts nichts (mox-nix for most readers). This blog-post of Og's alone would make his blog significant if it was all he had written for the whole year, so I tried to make an in-depth comment, but came up short. It did get some synapses firing though, so I decided to amplify here on my very own blog.
What Og's writing did for me was put all the world's woes in perspective, BOOM! like a bolt from the blue, like a double-twelve firing both barrels. BOOM!
It's fantastic! No, it's REALLY fantastic! People, the whole damn culture is one big fantasy game, and there are some pretty good gamers out there "playing" at culture.
I have written many, many blog-posts decrying the screwed up culture, just click on the "Culture War" link in "Categories" in the right sidebar of this blog if you need to see some. There are hundreds there.
I haven't wasted my time with that writing, but I may not have gotten it quite right, either. Most of the faux pas modern folks make which affect the culture aren't done in an attempt to kill the culture (making a liar out of me in some cases, I've held to that theme in this blog frequently), they are done because our educational system has failed it's students, and most folks under 40 can't tell the difference between life and fantasy.
Here is some proof:
Turn on your TV in "primetime". Fantasy series abound, to a far greater degree than they did in the past generation.
Go to a multi-theater cinema. Fantasy-themed films abound. Even the action flicks have stunts in them that are straight out of sci-fi.
The most popular children's book series, "Harry Potter", is fantasy. Fantasy for kids. Let THAT soak in.
Video games are almost entirely fantasy, again, mostly for kids with their impressionable minds.
Even our interest in professional sports has become heavily involved with correctly-named "Fantasy Sports".
What used to be proper fantasy for us, the science fiction genre, has taken on elements of politics and become less sci-fi and more poly-sci. See "Puppygate".
Politics, which used to be games among men who were engaged in running governments, now is heavily involved with fantasy. See "Socialism". See "Crony Capitalism".
The processes of higher learning have become heavily involved in fantasy. See "trigger warnings". See "safe spaces". See the hashtag #specialsnowflakes.
Even communist revolution has become involved in fantasy. See "Black Lives Matter"
Wait! We can't forget economics, the grease for the axles of commerce. It, too, is involved in fantasy. See the "Fifteen NOW!" movement. See Central Banking. See equity derivatives. See national debts.
Yep. Our lives become fantasy, and then reality bites us in the ass. Sort of like driving onto a water-covered section of road and pretending the water is only a few inches deep until you car goes underwater over the roof. Sort of like pretending we can get along with Islam, which actually instructs it's adherents to convert non-believers by the sword. Until ISIS comes along and we still pretend until the Islamic bullets tear into our loved ones' bodies. You get this picture now, don't you? If not, put your head back down in that sand. It's warm and safe in there, and you won't feel a thing until some pervert finds your ass-out ass...
If you really understand the disconnect of fantasy, go to your gun safe, open it, and start cleaning those guns and counting your ammunition. It's going to take the complete shock of war, at your front door, to convince many of us that life and fantasy ought to be separated.
Here are the storm totals just for THIS front, the second one in two days (the first one was only 3.4" here). Embiggenate the photo and use the right-side key to interpret the rainfall totals. We are half-way though the rain from the FIRST front, and the second one will be worse. The chart, normally accurate to within 10%, says I have 2.0-3.5" already. My rain gage says 3.6" as best as I can read it from 15 feet away inside my house:
The Coast Range and western slopes of the Cascade Mts will get 10-15" of rain from today's front and the more severe one coming tomorrow and Wednesday. Historically, highway bridges over mountain streams do NOT withstand this sort of hydro assault in these parts. Pray for our bridges. All we can do is wait. The Atmospheric River goes all the way to the Philipines...
The events unfolding in San Bernardino show us a different threat. Not an unknown threat, just a different one.
We have been used to seeing various formats of homicidal/suicidal Jihad here: 9-11, the various Jihadi gun attacks since then, etc. All these attacks had one common characteristic: the Muslims involved were all determined to kill members of the Western Civilization, but pretty much stuck to methods which left their shock troops dead with the event. One-way attacks. Don't "pass go", Get your 72 raisins immediately.
With San Berdoo, we have just seen an attack in which the Jihadis had trained and prepared to strike with force and effect, but moved on quickly to, presumably, strike again later. Far from the normal homicide/suicide attack, this is more like revolutionary attack. This resembles what we used to refer to as a "partisan" attack. Similar to the tactics of the French or Yugoslavian partisans who attacked the Nazis during WW2. What we just saw could have been very successful for the Jihadis, and the only reason it wasn't, was better training and discipline/communication on the part of the police authorities.
My purpose here is not to figure out how to defeat this different flavor of Jihad, but to prepare the average citizen to survive it. Methods of defeat for the Muslim Jihad will have to wait for a National Command Authority determined to defeat Islamic Jihad itself, and we don't have such leadership now, we have the opposite. We have political and command leadership determined to NOT face down islamic Jihad instead of the other way around. The effect for John Q. Citizen is that he will probably have to face the shock troops of Jihad alone, possibly with the help of local police.
A personal note: I am trained in various aspects of public safety, and as events unfolded and were reported yesterday in San Berdnardino, I evaluated the events as if they were the result of criminal gang activity, since, to me, the events more resembled the activity of, say, Mexican drug cartels or the criminal gang MS-13 (both very active in San Bernardino), and both are orgs not unwilling to create mass murder to get their point across. I was wrong in that analysis, mostly because I applied the usual standard of homicide/suicide Jihad, then rejected it, and this event did not fit that model.
So, how to prepare?
Arm up. The protected citizen will be armed at all times, with handgun(s) within hands' reach at home and away, and a long gun close by as well. You will have to figure out how to conform to "safe storage" laws to accomplish this in your home and in your car (presumably, your "away" long gun stays in the car). At home, I have quick-reaction pistol safes (plural), and the long gun goes back in the big safe when kids are present, so I comply. In the car, I carry on my person as I am permitted to do, and my long gun is a Kel-tec folding rifle with internal lock, carried in a locking gun case, kept in the locked trunk of the vehicle.That complies with local law as well (it would NOT comply in CA or several Eastern states though).
Train up. At this point, if you have not already done so, join a local gun club or commercial firearms practice facility. Your preference should be one which has practice facilities for handgun (any caliber), rifle (any caliber) and shotgun. With the exceptions of no 50BMG and no full-auto, my club fits these requirements. You will need to allot sufficient funds for ammo, and/or begin to reload your chosen calibers. You will need to allot sufficient time to practice, probably a minimum of once per month in the training phase, and four times per year with all defense firearms as a maintenance-of-training effort.
Smarten up. Apply some common sense as to your selection of events to attend, particularly if you will be responsible for others' safety. Large outdoor events are Jihad targets of opportunity, as are crowded shopping malls. Organized athletic events in arenas and stadia are probably safer to some degree, but the Jihadis wouold love to target one for the kill ratio that they could achieve. Consider applying a sliding scale of risk to your life and it's chosen events. Yeah, that's a bummer, but we are at war, dude! You are probably safest at home, relatively safe out and about in your vehicle, safe enough doing shopping that is NOT done in large, crowded venues at peak predictable times. You are less safe in any public crowd, on mass transportation, at any outdoor event which has been heavily advertised as to attendance prospects. The training and/or dedication of your local policing authority is a factor in your relative safety also. Evaluate it.
Vote up. National elections are close at hand. Regardless of your political affiliation, you need to vote for your own safety. Safety is personal, and politicians and political parties which refuse to recognize your personal safety as their Job #1 should NOT get your vote. This is not about flavors of morality, this is about survival. See my note on National Command Authority, above.
Again, we are at war. The war has been brought to these shores by Islam, and it's not going to get "wished away", even though this seems to be the primary "combat strategy" of the current political Administration. YOU are responsible for your OWN safety, so make safety happen for you, NOW!
A final word. Religion. Your personal religious creed should give you the mental strength to survive the mental rigors of mortal combat. It is NOT required for that purpose, but if you hold to a creed, it will pay you to increase your attention to it in these anxious times. Your creed is your business under our Constitution. Your survival is a natural AND Constitutional Right under our system. You MUST consider anyone who attacks you for your creed or attacks your Right to survival as your enemy. Islam is attacking/denying both.
Russia WILL make some sort of military response. My guess is that it will come in some location where the Turks are not expecting it. My best guess: a radar station on Turkey's northern border with Russia will "cease to function"...
In addition, Russia's air attack forces will be put on a full Air Battle Management Plan, which is a multi-mission battle integration system involving ground and air-launched missiles, and anti-missile missiles. It probably raises the cost of battle in Syria for the Russians by a factor of five, but I believe they will do it.
No one is talking about Turkish Air Battle Management, but considering what we know, there was only 19 seconds involved in the attack on the Russian SU-24. In terms of air battle management, that is too short a time to allow for intervening command and control, so the Turkish decision to attack the Russ aircraft must have been made well before the Russ aircraft entered Turkish airspace (if it did, there is some question about that). This can only mean that the Turks pre-planned the attack on the aircraft, verifying Mr. Putin's statement.
If I am Vladimir Putin, I call up the NATO command in Brussels, and make a FIRM request (demand, really) for a meeting with the NATO command structure, and at that meeting, I demand that NATO order it's member, Turkey, to not only desist from firing on Russ aircraft, but REQUIRE Turkey to disable it's border Air Battle Management system and offer proof that it has done so. Were I Putin, I would claim this right as a Head of State reporting a violation of NATO engagement rules. NATO has engagement rules that make members take defensive actions only at their borders, and since this was an obvious planned targeting of the Russian aircraft, I believe Russia has made it's case that Turkey violated the rules and should be sanctioned for the violation.
Reality: The reality here is that there is a HUGE division between the Turkish military and the civil Ergodan government. Ergodan wants to move Turkey more in the direction of Islamism, but the Generals resist that. It is likely that this military action was taken with zero level of civilian control over the military, which just happens to be another NATO membership requirement. The remaining question seems to be whether Ergodan can control his military. If he can't, there is LOTS of precedent for military overthrow of civil government in Turkey.
Oh, and it's worth remembering that we have an entire air base in Turkey...lots of hostages are possible if Obama wanted to make an intervention. I doubt if you will hear a peep out of Obama, even if Russian cruise missiles fly towards Ankara...
Note: that title can NOT mean "Islamic Terrorism and how to END it", because until and unless the entire Qu'ran is re-written to exclude it's main inclusionary theme of "convert or die", defeating Islamic Terrorism is not possible if ONE true believer is left alive with freedom to move around. The best we non-islamics can do is corner the Islamist killers in far-away places, applying continual and heavy enough force to keep them cornered.
The Paris attacks of 11-13-2015 are significant, because many citizens in many free nations will now realize the serious difficulty of keeping their citizens safe.
This question must be answered: What does it take to convince the leaders, parliaments, congresses and judiciaries of these free nations to put their War Faces on and effectively fight Islamism in toto?
Your blogger has had plenty of military leadership training, including (enlisted) Basic Leadership School, advanced leadership courses such as Train the Trainer, etc; (Commissioned officer) Officer Training School, Squadron Officer School (didn't finish it, skipped to Air Command & Staff College instead, per regulation). All these schools prepared me the same way, to manage conflict and lead people in conflict with a goal of winning the conflict. I received many more months of training in conflict management as a Deputy Sheriff; about 9 months' worth of formal training including 9 graduate hours of Abnormal Psych courses.
So much for me. I can lead, but I'm a bit too old to take the field, except in a gross emergency, but perhaps not all my readers have my handicaps, so here's what THIS Major thinks will work and what won't work, in short-format:
Works: First, Identify the Enemy. People, you MUST know who you are fighting. Simple concept, yes? Simple enough, but our President REFUSES to utter the words "Islamic Terrorist". Since elected, he has "talked around" the issue of enemy identification. His obfuscation here has hurt our cause by diluting our efforts in the eyes of the Islamic world.
Works: Partner with all prospective allies, and engage THEM as well as yourself. We have done a poor job here as well. WE are the "spine" of NATO, and NATO has paid lip-service only to the idea of fighting Islamism. Russia could be a great partner, but we have maneuvered them into the position of enemy instead - a huge mistake.
Works: Show your Flag. Flags have one purpose, to raise emotions for a cause. This Cause is perhaps the most important that all of Civilized Earth has ever faced, and the cause itself deserves a flag, but figuratively, our leadership has prohibited flag-making.
Works: Armor up. This is a basic, grunt-level war. Where is the USA's vaunted wartime production? There isn't any. Where is the large Army which will be needed? Our leaders are shrinking it, not building it up. Where is the military Intelligence apparatus required for this fight? Mostly missing, and what is there is riddled with spies for Islam.
What needs re-working? Here, we might do better by simply taking the brightest 10% of Second Lieutenants with fresh "butter-bars" and give them the job of re-working our military mission against Radical Islam. They WILL do a better job than all the PeeCee Generals we have running the show right now.
Fails: We have NOT partnered with all our prospective allies, and those we HAVE partnered with cannot abide our present leadership and it's failures in this war.
Fails: We don't HAVE a flag. We have Leaders who don't even show proper respect for our National Flag, let alone any possible anti-Islamist flags.
Fails: We have relegated our Military to idiotic roles in this "fight". Senator Cruz said that we are only flying 20 to 30 air missions per day against ISIS, where we used 1,100 per day against Saddam Hussein during the Gulf War. What Cruz DIDN'T say was that 80% of the missions we DO fly are coming back with the bombs still on the wings because of insane Rules of Engagement, so we may actualy be dropping bombs from less than 5 aircraft per day. Russia, on the other hand, is flying DOZENS of missions per day, and all their aircraft come back in condition Winchester*.
This advice Ain't No Big Thing, as the troops used to say in MY war, Vietnam. No big thing, very elemental, but until we begin to respect the knowledge and leadership which starts with Corporals and Second Lieutenants, we will continue to LOSE this war. Losing is not an option if we are to remain Free Nations. The price of losing is that we will LOSE OUR FREEDOM.