Running Amok with numbers

While our attention is focussed on the price of oil and it's refined derivatives, other players in the global market economy have stuck THEIR knives in our backs.

Consider that major brands of soda pop used to sell for (full retail price) $3.60 or so for a rack. On deep discount, usually before various warm-weather holidays, that price would drop to $2.40. Now come the pre-Memorial Day sales and the price has dropped to.....about $3.60 a rack from about $5.20 or so.

I used to drink a lot of branded pop. I swill cheapy stuff now.

Consider that a T-Bone steak used to sell for $5.00/# at a sale. Found any for under $8.00/# recently?

I eat cheaper cuts of beef now.

A battle-pack of South African 7.62 NATO M80 Ball used to cost $28.00 for 140 rounds, about 15 months ago. That same battle pack is about $80 today (and a couple of years older). 9X19 UMC 115-grain ammo was as cheap as $5.99/box of 50 a year ago, now $9.99. .308 hunting loads used to be $13-16 a box of 20, but those same boxes today are creeping up on $40.

I used to toss all my brass. I save every hull now and reload with lead.

I'm sure this is all highly fiskable by an Econ person. So fisk it.

In return for fisking it (which you may do in the comments if you like), all I ask is that you take out the last three check registers from your file cabinet and add up a typical month's bills and cash ATM withdrawals from your checking account, and post them for 15 months ago, 10 months ago, five months ago and this month.

You will have fisked yourself.

You may not call it recession, you may call it something else, or you may persist in saying the economy is fine, but your checkbook won't lie to you.

The (D)onk candidates haven't been talking about the economy much. Come November, they won't have to, it will be the #1 item on ALL voters' minds.

B.O.H.I.C.A.

Comments

[Aaron Neal]

No doubt, prices are going nuts, on almost everything.

I refuted the recession issue because of the DEFINITION of recession... I'm not an Econ major, so I'm not sure if Brick Oven Bill's numbers fit. I don't know if the definition of recession includes a contracting dollar. So, maybe I'm wrong in saying that since GDP grew, we're not in a recession YET...

I don't argue that our economy is in big-time trouble; I just argue that a lot of socialist/commie newscasters have been throwing around the word "recession" in order to tar President Bush, and by association, Presidential Hopeful McCain, and I have a problem with that. They've been using the term "recession" for far longer than ANY economic indicator (other than people losing houses they shouldn't have been able to buy anyway) justifies.

Now, as I said, the prices of almost everything are going nuts. This is a bit late to the "buy it cheap, stock it deep" party... but prices are highly likely to keep going up. Beef, pork, and chicken producers have been cutting numbers of livestock due to price of feed, which has led to an unnatural oversupply of meat. It's likely as cheap as we'll see for the foreseeable future. If you have freezer space, stock up now. As I said in response to Rivrdog's comment on my blog recently, look for holiday-related "loss-leader" sales.

Once livestock levels are down to managable levels of feed costs, meat costs WILL skyrocket. Get ahead of the curve on this one.

Fuel and ammo costs are already very high, compared to recent prices - but they'll go higher. Fuel costs are going up, count on it, and ammo is heavy, and costs a lot to ship. Not to mention, the metals that make the ammo are going up pretty consistently. If you don't have good stocks now, BUY! It'll only be more expensive (or unattainable) later.

I have a problem with the "recession bat" that's being used against Bush, and by extension, McCain, but there is no doubt our economy is in bad shape. It will probably get worse before it gets better, so buy now, unless you're ready to do without. (This is meant to general readers, not Rivrdog - I think he knows what I think on this topic).

ED. NOTE: I agree with Aaron. As I recall now from my feeble efforts to learn the subject in college, there is a new term that is more appropriate: "stagflation", or a combination of inflation in a stagnant economy, resulting in all the effects of a recession without the economy ever crossing the threshold into inflation. I'm fairly sure that stagflation is what we're getting, and if we are, Bernanke has the wrong approach to fight it. In stagflation, supporting a weak dollar is NOT the answer, the dollar must be made stronger, so those Treasury bonds should be getting a better interest rate, not having their interest rates cut. The government has to encourage savings, not spending, and it has to slash it's own spending. A tax hike to reduce the deficit might also be in order. However, we are unlikely to get any of these things with a (D)onk administration.

The most recent example of stagflation was during the Carter years, '76 to '80.

I'd like to see Bernanke explain what IS wrong with the economy, instead of just telling us over and over that we aren't in a recession.

[Merle]

Yep - bend over !!!

Merle

[Rivrdog]

This from the RivrSis:

You sound like Bush at the supermarket several years ago - surprised that you can swipe a credit card to pay for things! OF COURSE, food has gotten more expensive. It's been getting more expensive for years, but now it's happening faster. The dollar is worth the toilet paper it's printed on and the greedmeisters have discovered food as the latest way to suck money out of the billions (food will last, oil won't).

Obviously there has been no sudden drop in the amount of food being produced, at least not to the extent that people are starting to starve in multiple places around the world. Even factoring in the palm oil and other acreage devoted to running people's cars, it's just greed. I believe you can even factor in the smaller-time hoarders, as well, and get the same result: this is being engineered by greedmeisters at the top of the corporate hegemony.

Some of the blame may be laid at the doorstep of the fact that most countries have pegged their currencies to the dollar, but even this will not explain it all - like the oil-price rise, this is the result of GREED. People at the top (some probably hidden) that want IT ALL. Not merely more than they or their progeny til the sun explodes can ever use, but simply, EVERYTHING.

ED. NOTE: I keep telling her she needs a blog, but she would rather use mine for the occasional rant.

[Aaron Neal]

Actually, there HAS been a sudden drop in the amount of food being produced. Major wheat-producing areas, ranging from the American Midwest to Australia, have suffered (iirc) two consecutive years of severe weather problems (mostly drought). There is also a "new" rust disease that started showing up in Uganda in 1999 that is causing wheat production problems across many parts of the globe, and hasn't been addressed effectively yet.

That, combined with food-producing land being planted with crops for ethanol, have resulted in a severe drop in food production, and a resulting serious drop in grain reserves around the world.

Falling dollar has meant all imports are more expensive (including oil), and therefore anything transported any significant distance is more expensive (as shipping costs are higher).

Who's greedy? Some (unnamed) greedy-boogeyman? Who's getting rich from this greed? Oil companies are producing record amounts of oil, at (demand-induced) record prices - they're making a lot of money. Of course, if they quit producing so much, we'd be EVEN MORE screwed - not sure they're doing anything wrong, other than providing a product at a price that matches demand.

Are farmers being greedy? Most farmers have to use a lot of diesel fuel to produce their crops; they're kind of caught between a rock and a hard place.

Meat producers? They're buying grain to feed their critters, and that grain is at record-high levels. Many meat producers are thinning their herds/flocks drastically to cut their feed bills.

So who's being greedy? "People at the top (some probably hidden) that want IT ALL"? Sorry, RivrSis, but I don't believe in the boogeyman.

There are many market forces, which cumulatively (as I've listed) are driving prices up dramatically. I'm not going to blame it on some make-believe "greedy" guy; I'm going to look at those market forces, decide what I can do about them, what I can encourage my Congresscritter to do about them, and otherwise buckle down for the long term.

Blaming a make-believe "greedy-guy" (for any problem) is not only disingenuous, it's intellectually lazy. It doesn't find the source of the problem and solve it; it's just griping.

And I agree with your Brother, you SHOULD have your own blog. :) He finally convinced me, I hope he does you too.