Nom de plume: Rivrdog

"Dear Red States"

A conservative friend sent me this letter, and he knows who actually wrote it (but didn't tell me). The writer is an executive with a major hotel chain in San Francisco and may also be some sort of gay activist down there.

It's interesting, and I have decided that it's worthy of dedicating some personal time to answer.

There is a threat to secede involved ("Blue" states threatening). In all my wildest dreams, I never thought I'd fight on the side of the Union, were I transported back in time to the Civil War. Especially since I was born in Virginia. But it would appear that since I live in Oregon, one of the mentioned "Blue" states, I guess I would have to fight to stop secession, or at least keep the Blues bottled up on their side of the mountains.

It might interest the writer of the threats to know that only parts of WA, OR and CA are "Blue". Were secession to be declared, the best the Left Coast could do would be to take the counties West of the Cascades, Siskiyous and Sierra Nevada mountain ranges. The territory east of those mountains would revert to Red America (The Union).

Hotel executives probably couldn't be bothered with "small" matters such as infrastructure, but 90% of the hydropower electrical generation, ALL of the coal-fired generation, and most of the Left Coast's water supplies would be in Red hands. Hmmm. Problem for the Blues. The Blues fare slightly better on the "smokestack" Least Coast, where they have coal and nuke plants and plenty of water to drink, BUT LITTLE LAND TO GROW ANYTHING ON.

The writer seems to get huffy about universities. Little does he know that universities and academicians don't fill empty stomachs or work with machine tools to make things; farms and labor does. The laborers will cleave towards whoever can pay them, not who has the glitziest political philosophy. Since the Red-Blue division means no trans-continental land travel, all the control of the overpopulated coasts will mean for the Blues is that their hungry mouths will have nowhere to go. Hungry and dis-satisfied people who are cooped up almost invariably revolt against their masters, and the Red States will see to it that any former Blue folk who flee, bringing manual skills, will be instantly employed, housed, armed and fed, and any others who can learn shovel work will not starve, either. There is a LOT of Red State agricultural land. Most of the petroleum reserves will be in Red States, and sufficient coal (which WILL get burned for power generation AND residential heating, so too bad about your precious carbon allowances, Blues) so that everyone will be warm and toasty, while the Blue Coasts suffer cold winters, and might have to cut down those redwoods to keep warm.

Yep, you got the best pot. Good on ya, mates. You will eventually learn that stoners don't work hard, fight hard, or make good decisions. You also have most of the drug-related gang warfare on those Coasts and mid-country cities, and it will STAY with you Blue-boys, because the gangsters will soon learn that crossing into a Red state means they are instant targets for not only the po-po and militias, but every citizen, all of whom will be armed and willing to use their arms.

Yep, the worst thing you have to worry about, Blue-boy, is that we have a LOT of guns.

But you're worrying about that now, aren't you, even before you lose the election and secede?

Sweet dreams.

Political advertising

This election season, we've been treated to a boatload of "Issue Ads", political ads for a candidate or other that supposedly don't originate with that candidate. There are no limits on such ads, nor should there be. It's a free country, no matter what McCain-Feingold says.

My problem with most of these ads is that almost all of them lie in one form or another.

There are two types of lies, commission and omission. A lie of commission is when the truthful fact is reversed, or twisted in meaning enough to be reversed. A lie of omission is when a subject is brought up, and a position taken on such subject, but an obvious fact is left out that would have put the lie to the entire presentation.

These lies are obvious to the politically astute, and EVERY party has used lying in their campaigns.

My problem is that TeeVee stations feel that they have to present the material given to them, and present it unedited. I don't believe ANY FCC doctrine ever said that when a bald-faced lie, of either commission or omission, is told, that the broadcaster has to accept it without alteration or comment. There may be law holding that the station is not responsible for torts arising out of presenting lies, but I doubt that there are laws saying that a station cannot identify a lie that is presented with an advertisement.

Why don't we demand that the TeeVee stations refuse to air false political advertising?

There is a process by which we can do this. All these stations have to defend the re-issuance of their licenses in a public forum every few years. At such a forum, the public is invited, in some manner or other, to present their opinion on re-licensing, and back up that opinion with facts about where the TeeVee station might have erred in their broadcast decisions.

Presenting a known lie as political advertising is certainly an error. When that lie is presented either without challenge from the editors at the TeeVee station, or worse, it's challenged and airing of the challenges is refused, then that TeeVee station should, if it presents a pattern of such behavior, not have it's it's license renewed to operate on that channel.

I'm sure an acceptable formula for judging the accuracy of political advertising can be arrived at. The (D)emocrats even devised one themselves, but their fact-checking system only seems to work to check facts of the opposition, and glaring errors of truthfulness in (D)emocratic Party political ads seem to escape their review.

The obvious way to handle screening out lies would be for the TeeVee station to have a citizen's panel available for pre-screening political ads. I would volunteer to perform this duty myself.

The American political process has become completely immoral. It consists, in the main, of spinning lies about one's opponent, and broadcasting those lies. The best liar usually wins the election. The results of all this lying is that we get a pack of confirmed and practiced liars to represent us. Lying is a weakness in the human condition which is usually indicative of other weaknesses, like taking bribes, failing oaths, etc.

Let's attack the root of the problem. The next time a network (or independent) TeeVee station broadcasts their (obligatory) notice that their license is coming up for renewal, let's form a committee to oppose renewal based on the presentation of lies as truth during the political campaign.

The only defense these stations will have is to tell us (and the FCC) that lying is the expected norm in political campaigning. When they make THAT admission, we have them by the throat. Such a political action committee can probably win acceptance of lie-screening of political ads by the station, and win it on the committee's terms.

Tick, Tick, Tick....

I'm an old geezer, so I know how to wait out the clock. Right now, the clock is ticking down the hours until the polls open on the East coast next week. I make it 174 hours and some minutes....

I can wait, because I have plans for all eventualities.

Here they are, the basics only. Caliber of essential firearms not included.

Option One: Obama wins in a landslide. Jubilation on the Left for a few days, then the Pe-loser will try to get Bush to agree to starting on the Obama Grand Plan even before the bloke is inaugurated, and that will backfire on her and Harry Reid. The inter-regnum will be the primary subject of the media as well as the disintegrating economy. Relative peace will prevail here before Inauguration Day.

Option Two: Obama wins in a squeaker, and the Congressional results do NOT give the Pe-loser a supermajority, or Harry Reid either. Bad cop, no donut. The ineffectiveness of the ObamaNation starts even before Inauguration Day. Grumbling, but still peace in the streets. The Congress goes back to the GOP in 2010, and the Presidency in 2012. President Palin kicks butt for 8 years!

Option Three: Obama wins, but the Berg lawsuit tosses him out (after it gets to the CONSERVATIVE SCOTUS). Bush remains President until 1159 EST 1/20/09 and then???? As I see it, Biden can't accede to POTUS because Obama was never President. The SCOTUS decides. That makes Pe-loser President. She cocks it up, badly (but so would Biden if he got in). Rioting in the ghettos goes on for months, but is contained to the ghettos because Joe Sixpack forms militias to protect what's HIS. ALTERNATIVE CONCLUSION: Rioting gets OUT of the ghettos because the 20 million illegals decide it's in THEIR best interest to revolt also (that "La Raza" thing, remember?). Bitter battles are fought over neighborhoods, thousands are killed, but the militias win the day, eventually unite as a party, and demand Pe-loser step down, and she does! The Supremes wisely decide that a new election is in order, and it is held in the Spring. By the time it is held, most of the Mexicans are back in Mexico, revolting against the government THERE, and there is actually a clean election, which puts common sense conservative populism in charge of the Presidency AND the Congress. Only 18% of incumbents are re-elected to Congress.

Option Four: Obama loses in a squeaker. The ghettos riot, and the Mexicans join them. Militias form and contain the violence to the inner cities even though the po-po won't act. Bush seems to have had a stroke, but upon further review, it's just normal Bush. Inauguration Day comes around, and Bush's last act is to have two Army divisions in DeeCee with orders to maintain order at ANY cost. McCain can't stand the strain after swearing in, and after two months in the Cardiac Intensive Care Unit at Bethesda Naval Medical Center, he resigns and President Palin is sworn in. Immediately, riots start again, but last less than two weeks with the "green light" given to all forces on riot duty. It seems that the boyz from the 'hoods don't really have the stomach for revolution when they're being shot on sight, and after the stores run out of Plasma TeeVees and beer, they just sulk and soon the local cops restore order, having been given "green lights" of their own. Some nasty relations prevail between the (D)onks and POTUS Palin, but in the 2010 elections, the (D)onks lose the majority in both chambers, a new era of common-sense populism prevails, and seems to suit the entire nation, because in the 2012 elections, Palin is returned with 49 States electing her, only Oregon with it's 54% State income tax (on the remaining few people who didn't flee) bucking the trend. The New Republicans sweep the House and Senate, and only 18% of incumbents of EITHER party are re-elected.

OK that's MY punditry for the next week. Make sure you vote, I already have.

Pick one option and act on it, or just dither like 85% of you will do anyway, and have to react to the crisis instead of being in charge of your destiny when it happens.

Mr. Rivrdog has voted

...and I held my nose, voted for McCain/Palin, and RINO Senator Smith. They got my vote ONLY because I would rather compromise THAT principle than have to think about any sudden conversions of the nation to socialism. Yeah, I am a frog, just takin' a bath here, would you mind putting some more hot water in my bathtub? No other incumbents at any level got my vote, though. No tax measures made it past my veto pencil. I did vote for an open primary initiative, an initiative to scrap building permits for small home improvements and an initiative to give property-crimes crooks (read: methheads) determinate sentences which they will have to flat-time. Yeah, yeah, I just taxed myself to build more prison beds eventually, but I don't mind that. The methheads will now move to WA, so arm up, Phil. I also voted to give immigrant kids 2 years to learn English in school, and then cut off their bilingual education money.

Voting's done. It's all over but the shouting, and I won't listen to any of that anymore. I might listen to political commentary again on Nov 5th, maybe not, might be too busy overwatching the kill zones around my property when the riots start on or just after Election Day.

BTW, on that subject of politics, a news flash this morning claims that someone has blown the whistle that computers only accessible to government agents were used to dig up info on "Joe the Plumber", for political purposes. Get used to it America. Do you think that will stop with Joe? I don't. Dime gets you a dollar that no one will see any jail time for THAT political crime.

So, f**k it, just f**k it. I polished off all my ordinary Scotch after voting, so a trip to the Green Front (state liquor store) is required. I'll use the one in the little town of Scappoose, where my yacht sits nestled in her berth, because tonight I'm going to dress up like a pirate at MCYC's Halloween Party and imbibe a bit more. One thing I can be sure of with an Obama administration is that liquor sales won't be banned anytime soon. Joe Stalin held the USSR together with his secret police AND cheap vodka.

Time to stir my bones, and get down the road to the 'Poose.

Arrrgh, mates. What was the name of Ayn Rand's pirate-hero in "Atlas Shrugged"?

The Day the Hedge Funds Died

...or how Warren Buffet went from the US' richest man to just another applicant for a Federal job.

The global meltdown accelerated sharply overnight in Asia and Europe, and the dollar gained against every currency except the Japanese Yen (JPY), which it fell sharply against, losing at least 5%.

Sales of futures contracts in the major 3 indexes right here in the USA was frozen overnight, as the 10% down-limit "circuit-breaker" kicked in and froze the free-fall AND the trading.

This means that the Dow and the S&P and the NASDAQ will open with 10% losses. All advisors are telling their clients NOT to sell equity positions, but if just 10% of them ignore that advice and go on gut feelings, the market will lose a couple of trillion in cap value today.

The major hedge funds may not survive the day at all, and some will have to close their doors. They cannot raise enough cash (even by selling all their gold, which has driven THAT price down to a 13-month low) to meet margin calls.

Leverage works both ways, but for years, the hedge funds have assumed it only worked in their favor. They are about to be shown the negative side of leverage, and the entire derivatives market may fall because of their absurd 30-40X leverage. I won't be sorry to see it go.

Don't worry, it isn't real money (unless you tried to play Warren Buffet's game of trying to convert the hedge fund play-money into a real fortune).

So, the Fed gets it's wish today, and the de-leveraging of the derivatives market may finish in one horrifying crash. If a tree falls in the forest, and no one is there, did it's fall make a sound? If a phony-money hedge fund falls, do you hear the phony dollars it was built on make a sucking sound as they fly away?

Enough levity. There will be a sucking sound as SOME real money follows the phony trillions of the hedge funds into oblivion, and some people will get hurt today as their equity stake in REAL companies takes a major hit.

My prediction: the Dow will lose about 800 points today and finish below 8,000. The Volatility Index (VIX) will approach 100.

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UPDATE: 102408 2208 PDT: The Dow only lost 312 today, and the elves don't know why, but they say watch out for Monday. It was fun to note that OPEC's production cut didn't do a thing to the price of crude. One oil trader said it's a hollow gesture on their part, since they can't really afford to lose the petrodollars they just shrugged off with the cut. The VIX hit the upper 70's. US equities have lost 3 trillion dollars in cap value this week alone.

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Monday will be the real test, since there will be some unbelievable bargains in equities out there, and bonds (Muni bonds) as well. The question of how much cash is left in the system will be answered Monday. If there is enough to support a rally, the market may have finally found it's bottom, and that light at the end of the tunnel WILL be daylight.

If there are no buyers for the bargains Monday, that means there is no cash left, and the bitter realization will set in that the light at the end of the tunnel is the locomotive on the point of the Devil's Train. The Devil's Train carries dangerous cargo:

It carries the End Times.

T. Boone Pickens, read this

All of you must have seen the political ad a couple of months ago where T. Boone Pickens drawled at us that we needed to build more windpower capacity, quickly.

Millions immediately signed on to Pickens' plan, disregarding both the conflict of interest (he owns options on wind turbine production AND leases on land to put up the machines) AND the engineering of the power grid, all of which mitigate against his Grand Plan.

The problem is, that the electric power grid is almost at capacity, with generation maxed out and production gobbled up, but it IS usually in balance.

If lots of new wind-power farms are built, and their production added to the grid like Pickens wants and will profit hugely by, there is a threat that the system could become overloaded. That almost happened here in Oregon a few months ago, and the grid would have been badly damaged except for the quick action of power managers at Bonneville Dam, who "scrammed" the hydro-turbines to make room for thousands of unexpected mega-watts from the wind farms, which unexpectedly started generating when an atmospheric pressure shift generated wind which was not forecast.

The wind turbines aren't on a central computer system, they are simply wired into the grid, so telling them how much to produce and when to go on line is not quickly feasible now, as each wind farm is a separate entity run by it's own people, not the grid managers.

Finally, the MSM has caught up with this engineering blooper of the ecotards and Pickens. This article reveals the dangers of having too much additional capacity without FIRST expanding the grid's capacity.

Told ya so.

Thanks, Rivrsis.

Schumer wants to worsen the economy

....by forcing a major socialist principle down it's capitalist throat.

This morning, in a hearing room before bankers who came at Chris Dodd's summons to "his" Senate Banking Committee, Senator Charles "Chuck the Schmuck" Schumer said,

"I am not convinced that the best way to spend taxpayer dollars is to inject capital into the banking system while the banks continue to pay dividends on their common stock (or similar words)."

Given that investors (capitalists) don't buy stock and hold it if it's not paying dividends, Schumer basically wants capitalism to be removed from the banking system.

Does Charles Schumer dislike the idea of the Treasury being paid back for  helping the banks out in their hour of need? I don't know, but he either wants dividend money from the banks for Treasury and DOESN'T want investors to have any of it, which is completely irresponsible, or he wants to wreck the very idea of capitalism, which is much more believable, considering his almost total acceptance and previous promotion of socialism.

In either case, taking away the banks' ability to pay dividends to anyone but the Treasury will discourage investment in their common stock, just when other factors in the economy have hit the price of that stock hard, making it AND the capital investors bring to the banks evaporate to nearly nothing.

There's no other way to say it, Charles Schumer is not in favor of the capitalistic economy recovering by itself through reestablishment of investor confidence.

What IS Senator Schumer's plan for economic recovery?

The world is waiting to hear the answer, Senator. The nose of the Socialist camel is under the flap of the tent. All of the Capitalist circus-watchers can see that camel. Are you going to bring that camel into the center ring, Senator?

Or, are you going to pretend you didn't just say those words in front of the entire world?

Charles Schumer, you are a fool, a dangerous fool, but now that you have shown us what you REALLY believe in, the fall of Capitalism, please show us what you would replace it with.

Some of us have a pretty good idea where YOUR thoughts of government came from, Karl Marx in "Das Kapital", but for the benefit of those of lesser education, please tell us just how Government would work under YOUR model, Senator Schumer.

World Money Markets

...are crashing compared to the evil Yankee Dollar right now. The Loonie (Canadian Dollar) has crashed to about 79 cents US, whereas it was trading just two months ago at $1.06 US. The Mexican Peso, trading just last week at around 11 Pesos to the US dollar, slid to almost 14. This result is because oil slid to below $65/bbl today for a while. The Canadians get most of their oil from oil sands, and it currently costs them more to produce it than they get, so they're shutting down production, and with their major export income gone, their dollars lose value fast.

Even better news is that Commie Chavez needs oil at $95/bbl to balance HIS budget, so he's going further into the red by the second. Couldn't happen to a nicer a***ole, eh? His economy is now in danger of crashing like Argentina's did in 2000. Cry me a river!

I could go on but here is an excellent site to keep track of all the major currencies, and it corrects itself, you don't have to refresh it. If you want to stretch your interest to the NYMEX futures market, here's a good site to follow that on.

Of course, the chicken-and-egg questions are: Is the dollar rising or are the rest of the world's currencies falling?

You sort THAT out.

Ignoring history

The Bush-bashers are so adamant to pin every perceived negative in our society on Bush that they ignore history. In this page of letters in today's lefty Oregonian newspaper, two writers, Bruce Daily and Bettina Anter expound that loose tax policies were to blame for the current financial troubles.

Nothing could be farther from the truth, in fact, the opposite is true. Loose tax policies have resulted in extra cash being saved in our economy, and the economy is living on that cash right now as credit is barely flowing.

Both of these writers have ignored history. I wrote in reply (but do not expect to get published). This newspaper is so far up Obama's butt it will do little to publish opposing viewpoints (see the letters).

My reply:

Editors:

 

Commentary writer Bruce Daily (10-22-08) has it partly right, the last 8 years have been a time of economic boom and bust for us, but his last sentence, "Sorry, it's what knocked the country to it's knees." is just plain wrong.

 

What knocked the country to it's knees is loose credit policies and the subprime lending crisis in particular. All of those policies stem from the wish-lists of liberals, not GW Bush. It was liberals, not GW Bush, who pushed the idea of persons of the lowest economic classes being granted credit and mortgages. The banks abetted all of these mistakes with THEIR disastrous leverage and derivatives.

 

The loose taxing policy of the Federal government has probably saved us from being in the depths of a horrible Depression at this point, and not the other way around as writer Daily expounds.

 

In all things, there is history. To get value from that history, one has to read ALL of it (end of letter).

Just so y'all know, this blog is NOT my only outlet. I allow my voice to be heard in this wilderness in other ways.

Blog? Why?

Meh. I've gotten the feeling that there's nothing more to be said, so for tonight, I'm just resting my bones after yard work, and I ate a half a rib-eye steak, put another 100 rounds of .45 ACP hulls in the polisher, and now I'll have a Scotch (or two!) and watch Rock Hudson in "A Gathering of Eagles".

Thanks, Dressy Lady!