Nom de plume: Rivrdog

With apologies to Og

...and malice towards none, I rise (off the crapper) to join the Great Toilet Paper Debate.

With no other sure-fire way to attract the attention of the Common Man save by pointing at his ass, the enviroweenies have begun to center on the lack of awareness of the environment brought on by the act of wiping one's ass.

This blog doesn't get involved with many of the "greener than thou" diatribes which seem to befoul the lefty blogs, stifling the proper exercise of thought thereon, but I'm an actual combat participant in the Toilet Paper Wars, so I thought readers might be interested in getting to the bottom of this bit of history.

I lived in England for three years, while a lad, 1954-56. It was the best time of my life, for I was just old enough to begin to appreciate how adults led their lives, but still young enough that I could retreat to the simplicity and civility of the child's life any time I wanted to, and the English were a civilized lot back then.

England in the Fifties was just starting to come out of a post-war Depression. Actually, they had been in a Depression for longer than the US, about 30 years by then. Their Depression was triggered by the commercial finish of their Colonies. They still held a few, but the days of glorious advantage because of them were over by the time our Depression started.

Enter toilet paper as an indicator of the civilization (citation).

Post war Europe manufactured toilet paper, but it seems that they declined to actually improve the product since it had evolved from it's previous humble beginnings as catalogs, meat wrappers, etc. During my sojourn there, I found that the best TP available wouldn't have made a mid-grade roll in the USA, and evidently, that evaluation still holds up 50 years later:

In many European nations, a rough sheet of paper is deemed sufficient. Other countries are also more willing to use toilet paper made in part or exclusively from recycled paper. In Europe and Latin America, products with recycled content make up about 20 per cent of the market (citation).

European toilet paper that I've used could actually be used to write on, and write upon clearly WITH A FOUNTAIN PEN. I've seen it used as TYPING PAPER, performing that role adequately in a manual upright Underwood machine, perfect for writing an Airmail letter. Most of this eurowipe had such a smooth surface, all it did was smear the cling-ons flat, not actually remove them, as proper US paper will reliably do. This, of course, leads to seriously skidded shorts in skinny people, and serious trail burn in those with more mass to their asses.

Of course, all this ASSumes that you were taught things like how to properly wipe your ass and blow your nose in the first place! While in England, our family noticed that the locals did not like to use disposable tissue for blowing the nose, either. This led to my habit of taking 6-12 tissues with me whenever we left our house for any reason. Those same Kleenex could be used to wipe the butt with as well as the nose. The Brits, of course, used handkerchiefs, but they can get loaded up with snot and be very unpleasant to handle, and heaven help you if you had to shake hands, which they did a lot! I DID learn how to properly flick a booger while in England, though.

The BOTTOM line here is that if civility can be measured by how clean your ass is, we are a lot more civilized than the Europeans, and that's a butt-load of truth!

Who would YOU bet with?

Given the choice of two financial gurus to follow, Ben Bernanke, chairman of the Federal Reserve, or Warren Buffet, owner/manager of the legendary Berkshire-Hathaway Fund:

"If actions taken by the administration, the Congress and the Federal Reserve are successful in restoring some measure of financial stability--and only if that is the case," Ben Bernanke told a Senate panel, "there is a reasonable prospect that the current recession will end in 2009 and that 2010 will be a year of recovery."

or........

OMAHA, Neb. Billionaire Warren Buffett says all kinds of investors finished 2008 bloodied and confused because of the dysfunctional credit market and other financial turmoil.

And the famous investor said Saturday in his letter to Berkshire Hathaway Inc. shareholders that "the nation's economy will be in shambles throughout 2009."

While not polar opposites, these two opinions (Bernanke's is best-case) vary enough to make one wonder just what it is that the government is smoking.

BTW, disabuse yourself of any notion that Buffet is one of Obama's enemies, and like Rush Limbaugh, would like to see him fail. If you remember the later stages of the '08 election, you will recall that the candidate and Buffet were great pals, leading to speculation that Buffet would serve an Obama Administration in some major financial leadership role.

This is simply a case of two betting men making a serious wager: Bernanke betting on the best case and Buffet betting on the likely (worse) case.

I'm with Buffet here.

Bicycle-Friendly?

The fuzzy greenie-weenies must be grinning all the way to their coffee shops to get their $12 Lattes today, because Portland, OR made second on the list of most bicycle-friendly cities, the highest-rated large city to do so. That will make everyone happy except Critical Mass and their past Chief Appeaser, Ex--mayor Potter. It will, of course, look like this status was achieved without their "help", which has consisted mostly of bicyclists behaving badly.

Corvallis, OR made #6. Corvallis is a small town, really, noted only for Oregon State University. It would only be a wide spot on Route 99W otherwise. I've been told they play football there, but it never seems to make the news on "Addicted to Quack", where I get most of MY collegiate sportz info.

Corvallis recently supplanted Eugene for this "honor", Eugene being noted mostly for the University of Oregon (Go Ducks!). Corvallis is noted mostly for Jerry the Geek, a guy strangely addicted to the sound of small explosively-driven projectiles hitting larger masses of rolled steel. Jerry has never mentioned riding a bicycle, so I presume that method of transportation is not suitable for hauling race guns and cases of ammo to pistol matches. I also note, in this photo, that the two-wheel mavens who made up this list did not shoot a photograph of the "City" of Corvallis, but chose to picture it's adjacent vineyard country instead.

Actually, that photo suggests the real reason that Corvallis got picked over Eugene: too many residents of that town have had DUIs, and are FORCED to ride bicycles. In Corvallis, the beer-sodden collegians don't do well when in their cups.

They don't even know how to start a proper Beer Riot.

Et tu, New York Stock Exchange?

You're also joining the cooked-books celebration?

It used to be a very big deal if a company's stock equities got listed on the Big Board at NYSE. It meant that company had arrived.

To get there, your company's stock had to have a capitalization value of 25 million dollars, and sell for at least $5 per share. If you suffered business reverses, you were politely warned and got a six-month grace period to boost your business, and if you couldn't, you were delisted, or removed from the Big Board.

Now it seems that sham business is the rule, because the NYSE has just suspended a large part of the capitalization requirement, driving it down 40%, and has said that your company's stock could remain below a buck (definition of a "penny stock" or "small cap" stock, which are never listed on the NYSE).

So, instead of standing tall in the face of the business difficulties, the NYSE follows Treasury and the Fed down the road of bogus presentations, and keeps their losers around.

For shame, NYSE. You are supposed to be the bedrock of business, but it appears that you are the soft underbelly instead.

Worst-case scenario?

...not bloody likely, mate.

The Treasury Dept, under wunder-kinder Ken Geithner, came up with a plan to "stress-test" banks, in order to see how much Federal help (and Federal nationalization) they might need.

The Feddle Gummint, looking ahead, projected at "present rates of recession", the USA would lose 2.0% of GDP in 2009, then bounce back to about that much growth in 2010. In their "worst-case" scenario, they projected that the US economy would lose 2.1% of GDP in 2009, and only recover to +0.5% of GDP in 2010.

The Treasury Dept, and Tim Geithner, don't have a clue, it seems. The Commerce Dept now puts the GDP of the USA at a negative 6.2% for 2009. That's roughly twice the rate of loss in the GDP that Treasury was planning on. The linked CNBC report shows six different categories of economy tracks that the government underestimated, mostly by around 20-25%.

How could those fools at Treasury miss by that much? Have they all been breathing that sweet ObamaFlatus?

OK, I correct myself. Folks, this is a failure of the entire spectrum of government. Bush had a hand in this as well, with HIS Treasury Dept continually refusing to believe that we were in a recession, until just about election time, as I recall. These numbers and the books based on them have ALWAYS been cooked at Treasury and the Fed.

First it was the total amount of "toxic assets" on the books of US banks, first estimated to be $300 billion, but now acknowledged to be at least $3 Trillion, ten times as much.

Then, all spring and summer last year (while the oil barons were having their way with us, bent over the proverbial oil barrel as we were at the time), we were told that we "technically" weren't in a recession, just a "business downturn", because there hadn't been two successive quarters of negative GDP.

Finally, well after the election, the Bush Treasury Dept admits to the "R" word, but says it's mild, then, as it was about time to swear in the new President, they admitted we were in a steep Recession, but not a Depression, heavens no.

Well, a GDP loss of 6.2% is damn near free-fall for the economy, hoseheads.

Just two days ago, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke finished testifying to Congress by saying that his bank believed that the US economy would pull out of negative GDP territory THIS YEAR. What a crock. Rep. Frank, if you have a single iota of actual justice in you, your committee should immediately recall Ben Bernanke, warn him that his poor accounting amounts to lying to Congress, and get some actual, un-adulterated data from him.

I demand proper accounting here. Is that too much to ask? If I or my CPA handled MY books this badly, we would BOTH be in Federal Prison.

Predident Obama, I realize that when you took over the Treasury Department, you inherited an organization used to cooking the books and lying about the true state of the US economy. Now, it turns out, your OWN people have been deceiving you badly.

Here's my action plan for you, Sir.

1. Fire Tim Geithner AND Ben Bernanke. Immediately.
2. Announce that anyone else failing to produce accurate results in the tracking of the economy will be summarily fired as well.
3. Pick a RESPONSIBLE, NON-POLITICAL business college which has been correct in it's assesments of the US economy, and announce that from now on, that college's data will be used as a cross-check for the Treasury Department.
4. Put your Inspector General of the GSA to work making that cross-check, and PUBLISH THE RESULTS ONLINE, IMMEDIATELY AS THEY ARE DERIVED.

As it stands now, no one believes the data Treasury puts out. That will cost the nation trillions more in lost equity in industries. We're probably headed for a 5,000 Dow now, and WE ALL KNOW WHY!

Credibility is a powerful sword, Mr. President, but remember that it cuts both ways. You've just been wounded by that sword.

I confess

This is one of the most laugh-bringing things I've ever read on the internet.

Thanks, Phil, that made my day.

If you don't want to read the comments, I'll assume Phil gave me permission to republish my remarks here:

"Hey, another label! Add it to the stack, Professor!

Let’s see, in chronological order, I have been referred to (as YAF in college in the early-mid 60’s) (as) supporting baby-killing (in Vietnam).

During my military service, a bringer of Nuclear Holocaust (True, that one, except I never got to actually drop or launch one of those nukes I sat on alert with).

During my service as a Deputy Sheriff, a jack-booted Storm Trooper. Actually, I wore Aviator’s boots most of the time. I worked during storms and on clear days, too.

During my retirement, a fucking thief for taking a public retirement, every dime of which I earned, and a lot of it during overtime.

During the Obama Campaign ‘08 as a religionist and gun nut (I don’t have a religious bone in my body, but I do respect those who want to think that way, AS LONG AS THEY ARE ACTUALLY THINKING).

During my blogging hobby (going into my 6th year now), as a fucking revolutionary, a fucking reactionary, a gun nut, and most of those above, all over again.

Calling me a Free Market Randian Pirate (or whatever) won’t really add much to that list, I should think."

Readers are invited to list THEIR labels in MY comments, below, or on Phil's comments, wherever.

The Goose that laid the Golden Eggs

...is a parable that we've all heard. Somehow, we are supposed to have enough smarts NOT to kill the goose that lays the golden eggs, but we can now add Barack Obama to the list of those lacking that level of smarts.

Just a few days ago, he called for a partnership between the Government and private investors to work together and quickly pull (and spend!) our way out of the recession:

"In each case, government didn't supplant private enterprise; it catalyzed private enterprise. It created the conditions for thousands of entrepreneurs and new businesses to adapt and to thrive."

Today, that partnership is revealed to be a hollow fabrication.

A prominent feature of President Obama's budget would soak the "rich" to help pay for all the goodies he is handing out to all the other classes of our society more likely to vote for him.

You can't have it both ways, Sir. If you want to have the investing class of this nation on your side, you can't bleed them dry of the very money they need to invest to do your plan any good, while pandering to sloth and fiscal irresponsibility in the lower classes.

Let's speak the truth here. This taxation scheme is just the start, isn't it? You have no intention of cutting taxes for 95% of the population, do you?

This President will wind up levying new taxes (failing to continue previous tax cuts are NEW TAXES) on every demographic that isn't 65% locked up to vote for him again in 2012.

If you want class warfare, Mr. President, you will get it.

Another parable you might consider is that "money IS power", and the moneyed class still has the power over the economy, you don't. The moneyed class didn't work very hard against you in '08, but you can bet that they will in '10 and '12.

You've just bitten off more than you can chew, Sir.

You are an idiot, Sir.

The other shoe

...is about to drop.

With the Obama Administration belatedly and crudely trying to bail out the home mortgage holders (it won't work, the help is too little, too late and aimed at the wrong people), nobody is minding the rest of the store.

Real estate has a second component, of course, the commercial side. Commercial real estate includes everything that isn't owned by a government, or an individual.

That's a lot of categories, but the biggest or maybe second-biggest component is office and retail store property.

Here's your Duh! moment of the day: if the economy's in the crapper, why should we expect that the commercial real estate business won't be affected?

Treasury is ignoring it, the Fed is ignoring it, Obama is ignoring it, Congress is ignoring it. So, while all those ostriches keep their heads in the warm, soft sand that is their ignorance, the commercial real estate market has rolled up to the precipice and is about to fall off into the abyss.

Commercial real estate is a highly leveraged business, much more so than residential real estate. It's always been leveraged too far.

A personal story: My grandfather was a Russian immigrant who came here in the 1890's. He was a very entrepreneurial guy, and from his humble business beginning as a one-machine tailor, he and his wife soon went into the second-hand business and was quickly operating two stores in Portland, OR. They were highly successful, and they immediately began to invest in real estate, mostly commercial. Each time they made a few dollars, they used that money as a down payment on another building or block. Eventually, they grew to be significant holders of commercial apartment buildings in Portland. That was the boom.

When the Crash of '29 hit, followed by the Depression, people quit paying their rents. Most were kind enough to move out and not require eviction, but soon there was insufficient money coming in to pay the mortgages and leaseholds that Grandpa and Grandma held, their whole real estate empire collapsed quite quickly, and soon they were living in a small apartment which my dad, by then a pharmacist with a decent wage, was paying for. They both died, in poverty, afterwards, before I was born (I never met them).

That's a very familial and personal example of how much a house of cards the commercial real estate business is today. It hasn't changed, except maybe to become even MORE leveraged.

Goldman Sachs.

That investment company's risky business practices were at the heart of the collapse of '29, and they never learned their lesson, it seems, for today, they are exposed to disaster AGAIN in the commercial real estate market.

The REIT-people.

A Real Estate Investment Trust is similar to a Hedge Fund in purpose and leverage, but holds only real estate. Income from certain real estate can be made as free of taxes, and that was done to encourage investment in the vital, but risky game of building new structures for commerce. There are large, mostly anonymous investment houses who write up and service these REITs, and there are investment funds, ETFs or Spiders, that are the vehicles for large and small investors to get a piece of the commercial real estate pie. Each level of investment, like commodities futures, multiplies the leverage involved, as well as multiplying the RISK involved.

Because we're in a severe recession, more than the usual number of businesses occupying commercial properties need to either downsize or just plain fold. Mostly now, those offices and stores are not being re-leased. They are just sitting there empty, reminding us of OUR misery, and making us wonder when that house of cards will collapse (again).

Rick Santelli of CNBC thinks it's right around the corner, and the INITIAL shock to the economy will be over a trillion dollars. Others agree with him.

The Obama Administration might actually be able to head off this crash, if they were to act in the next 30 days. Their actions would have to be supportive of the robber-baron holding companies such as Goldman Sachs, but it could also be in the form of tax credits to holders of REITS and funds made up of shares of REITs. Those credits would encourage the holders of REITs to hang on a while longer, and while it turns my stomach to even consider bailing out Goldman Sachs, if it was properly done, that would also help save the REITs.

The residential mortgage "meltdown" drowned most of the banking system, and what's left is heavily invested, not in those sub-prime dogshit mortgages, but commercial real-estate paper. If THAT paper ALSO falls off the table, the economy will never be the same, and recovery will take years.

If YOU are in REITs, you've watched them decline, at a lesser rate than equities or bank stocks in particular. You still have some value, and you have your tax relief, the reason most people buy REITs anyway.

YOU have a tough decision to make: If you bail now, you might have to pay tax penalties and you will lose most of your investment value in the REITs you sell, but if you decide to hang on, you may just go down with the commercial real estate ship, which is about to sail off the edge of the flat planet known as leveraged investment.

The ripple effect of a collapse in the commercial real estate market will probably push the sinking economy totally underwater, and even the wishful thinkers like Bernanke will then have to admit that this is a Depression.

Call out the National Guard(s) along the MX border

...along the Mexican border.

This sort of news is getting to be old hat, happens at least every week now.

MX Presidente Philipe Calderon has a full-blown state of anarchy going down there, and either doesn't know it or doesn't give a rip. Probably the latter.

With the gangs threatening to pursue their targets right across the border into the USA, and a President in OUR nation who also doesn't give a rip, the only solution is for the Governors of the involved states, TX, NM, AR and CA to call out their National Guards.

Demands for those Governors to do just that should be on the lips and flowing from the pens of every citizen of those states at this moment.

We're essentially back to the Pancho Villa days, but we don't have a General "Blackjack" Pershing with an order to march into Mexico and kick some druggies' butts, so the best we can do is put well-armed Guardsmen on the border to prevent predations and incursions by the drug gangs from coming over to our side. Eventually, these gangsters will get tired of looking at the Guard, and will engage them, and will get the shit shot out of themselves for their trouble.

If we had a real Commander-in-Chief, I wouldn't have to remind the four Governors of their duty, the Regular Army would already be doing it, but the border states can expect no help from the ObamaMessiah. He's too busy trying to convince investors to buck everything they ever learned and invest in a still-crashing market.

If you live in one of the four states, start nagging your Governor NOW!

SFO & SEA daily blatts about to go under

Cry me a river, over.

Read it and DON'T weep.

Sic Semper Tyrannis, or whatever.