The Obama Administration has every reason to hide the true state of the US economy from us. It's called survival. If by Election Day next year, the economy hasn't ACTUALLY turned around, the (D)onks will go down to defeat, badly, and the entire US governance is likely to be in the hands of the GOP.
States? The Statehouses were turned over to the GOP in a majority of states where they were contested. House of Representatives? GOP. Senate? Damn near made it into the GOP's pocket. Even in liberal Oregon, the State House of Representatives is evenly split.
Lots of liberals are worried, and with good reason: it appears that they backed the wrong horse. I'm not her greatest fan, but as I sit here dishing up the punditry, I believe that Hillary would not have made half the goofs that Nobama has engineered. Her hub WAS a business-friendly Democrat, after all, and he presided over a great boom in business.
Obama, OTOH, has presided over the biggest business collapse since the Great Depression. Granted, he didn't start it, it started under his mostly-RINO predecessor, GW Bush. OTOH, Obama's immediate and overuse of the cash printing presses exacerbated the fiscal troubles. Yes, the collapse might have been steeper without intervention, but the recovery would have been steeper as well, and probably better as you cross today's timeline.
Now, we get local. In my neck of the woods, the real-estate market is STILL in free-fall. There are a LOT of desperate people out there. No one can sell, unless they are willing to take their lowest desired outcome and subtract at least 30% from it. That figure is not out of my butt, either, those are the words of several Realtors I know. No one is buying, almost at any price. The house behind me, a nice 2500 ft/sq place on almost 1/3 acre, three car garage, new siding & roof (with new sheathing under), just went on the market. It's desperate owner, who inherited it last year, is asking $100K under low market, and getting no lookers! I had 40% equity in my place 2 1/2 years ago, and am probably underwater now, despite having paid the mortgage down by $30K in that time.
I was going to buy a new car last week, spending about 30% of my savings to do so (don't want payments). After the neighbor did her distress-sale thing with her house, I cancelled those plans. I figure I'd better hang onto both my dollars and the 99 Mazda Little Black Truck a while longer. At the rate things are going, I could NOW buy some very survivable acreage with it, not two hours from here, with a cozy doublewide to live in and a 1800 ft/sq shop to play in. That situation will only improve. I expect that in another year, if reality doesn't intrude on the day traders at NYSE in the meanwhile, the dollar will decline further against my reserves and I could maybe buy the acreage next door to that sooper-secret find out in the Coast Range, so, instead of 13 acres, I would have 59, with plenty of millable timber, too (timber futures pay the taxes on these small woodlots). There's so much elk out there to be hunted silently with a crossbow that I would never starve. Good soil for potatoes and veggies in the bottomland, too, and plenty of water (the Columbia River is just two miles away). Lots of deep-water sloughs to keep a boat in...
A city boy with a country mind will survive, but I'm betting this Administration doesn't. The key will be: when do the day-traders fold up? When that happens, it WILL precipitate a MAJOR crash of the NYSE. The economy, at the local levels, has already crashed. All we-uns out here, outside of the Beltway, are doing is waiting for those inside the Beltway to get the message.
Here's what it would take to keep us out of the GREATEST Depression in our national history. There have been some doozies before, too.
- Crash austerity program to eliminate the budget deficit in the NEXT fiscal year (not 10 years from now, as some would do).
- De-regulation of the energy industry, TOTAL deregulation. Drill anywhere, everywhere there is oil. Mine coal everywhere it is feasible. Suspend ALL bullshit "Global Warming" restrictions on power production. We will DRASTICALLY cut our foreign balance of trade this way.
Those first two will stop the slide of the dollar. It will begin to firm up, then rise against the Socialist currencies. With REAL money coming into business and industry, people the world over will bid up the equities of US companies, who will then be able to resist gouging their US customers, restoring balance to the customer-market relationships which has been missing for 60 years.
What's it going to be, America? You can have a new, stronger money by removing the deficits and restoring energy independence, or you can have the Second Republic. We can cut out SOME of the entitlements right now, or cut them ALL in the Second Republic. In the Second Republic, the economy will be run at the point of guns, mine being one of those. Since my life then will be based on farming and other survival actions (my pensions will end), I will have a dim view of those who want a piece of my action. They will end up feeding the worms that help till my soil.
Again, what's it to be, America?