Now that the leaders are all in jail, most likely having been ratted out by someone they thought was on their side, we can look at what succeeded and what failed in their mission.
Now comes the legal side of the Malheur Wildlife Refuge Incident. Again, the Feds are NOT doing the usual thing. After the bullets ordered by #ButcherOfBurns, OR Gov. Kate Brown subsided, and everyone surrendered out on the highway and were arrested, they were dragged to Portland and they appeared in Federal Magistrate's Court yesterday. The charges they did face? Feds stacked it up, right?
Wrong. The remaining rebels are each charged with ONE count of obstructing Federal Officers, a Class C or D felony which CAN be plead down to a misdemeaner (and probably will be, as I will explain). Notably, there are NO firearms violations charged, there are NO charges for the considerable theft/damage to Federal Property which occurred, and there are NO TERROR-RELATED charges (that's the biggie here). Now, in court, and you've seen this a million times on Wolf Films TeeVee shows, the arraignment prosecutor argued for no bail, argued dangerous peeps, argued out-of-state peeps, argued flight risk, all that, but additional hearings were set nearly immediately, so bail will likely be granted soon.
So, when #KorruptKate demanded that the occupation be terminated with extreme prejudice, it WAS, but only in the case of the firebrand Finicum, who, by the best accounts so far, seemed to desire Suicide By Cop, and got it. If you recall #KillerKate's speech in Salem last week though, she wanted the Federal book thrown at the occupiers, and SHE has been rebuffed. Oregon charges might be added, but for what? Being there? No, it's all Federal property, and the Feds want out of it and are getting out. Those additional Oregon charges, BTW, would have to be filed in Harney County, and no DA there wants to touch them.
End it, and give no opportunity for a showdown in Court later, those are the obviously the orders out of Washington. Martyrs are gonna seek martyrdom, that's what they do. NOW it makes sense that the Feds sought no warrants in Court. They could easily have gotten arrest warrants for a slew of felony charges, but didn't. Now I can see why. The handwriting was on the wall for the Feds when they saw the large and sympathetic crowd waiting for the Bundys and Finicum in John Day. This rebellion was about to spread. They stopped that, and now they want to deny the rebels their all-important soap box, and will likely succeed in that, too. There ARE some thinkers on the Federal side. Too bad they are stuck playing such a rigged game.
Bundy's success: he HAS raised the Federal Lands Debate to a National Discussion. It might even make it as a platform plank in the GOPe Party Platform this year.
Bundy's failures: He was never in command of his Militia. Finicum gave HIM orders. You can't lead from the rear, unless you INTEND to be a REMF*, which is terrible leadership. Bundy was NO logistician, supply for his mission was a major issue. G-2 (Intelligence) was a HUGE failure. Bundy's case should have resembled that of the French Partisans in WW2 because the locals were on his side for the most part, but he never involved them until right at the end, when he and Finicum put together the show in John Day that he was enroute to when the Feds decided to end his game. From Day One, Bundy should have talked to the local ranchers one at a time to determine friend from foe, and set possible new refuge ground if his first choice became untenable.
To the extent that the Feds are buddy-buddy with the press, the story will now go away, unless one of the major GOPe candidates wants to keep the Lands Issue alive as a campaign issue.
* REMF = Rear Echelon Mo-Fo, a derogatory term for those of rank/leadership in a war who never faced bullets. The term may have started in an earlier war, but it came into wide use in the Vietnam War.
All those who will be convinced by Bundy and his merry little band have been convinced, and all those dead-set against Bundy, his work and his merry little band will never be convinced.
What happens in conflict situations when a true stalemate develops? Let's look at a few conflicts from a historical viewpoint:
WW1: The static warfare of no movement resulted in HUGE casualties, as both sides registered their artillery accurately and emplaced their machine guns carefully to have overlapping fields of fire. The trench systems that resulted killed almost as many troops as the bullets, as the living conditions in them were atrocious. Note that when the USA came into the war, and the allies developed the first tanks, as crude as the tanks were and as green as the American troops were, mobility finally developed, Germany was soon moving backwards, and the war was over within a few months.
WW2: The start of the war. The "sitzkrieg" (translation: "sitting war") developed, as Hitler's army was not prepared to take objectives on two fronts simultaneously. After finishing up in the East by crushing Poland, Hitler was able to bring his forces to bear against Belgium and France, and the Sitzkrieg was soon over and the entire Continent was soon in German hands.
Korea: The stalemate of THAT war of movement only developed when the strong forces of China and the US were limited in their warfare by political concerns. The Democratic Administration of Harry Truman did not want to widen the war with the objective of defeating China, because he feared that the USSR would intervene, with perhaps the use of nuclear weapons. China was limited politically by Russia, who supplied their military hardware and the technicians to run it.
Vietnam: Stalemate developed early, despite the US' development and quick perfection of airmobile envelopment. We owned the day skies, they owned the night ground. That, combined with a Democratic Administration's reluctance to actually win the war, resulted in first, stalemate, then defeat for the USA.
War on Terror: May not even BE winnable, but if it is, we have made no proper moves to win. If you include Desert Storm, yes, we won the battlefield in that limited-objective operation, but no, we failed to consider the role of defeating Saddam himself, so all that brilliant battlefield work went for naught. In today's fighting, 25 years later, we have ZERO desire or strategy to win at all, and lacking such, should not be at war.
Back to Harney County, Oregon.
With stalemate the condition of the conflict, little can be done, and there are signs that the resolve of the militia is weakening. Today's paper mentions that the militia might abandon the Malheur Refuge and move over to Grant County, which puts them 150 miles closer to Portland, which will make the liberals West of the Cascades VERY nervous. Grant County is barely East of the Cascades, and parts of it are less than a two-hour drive from Portland. Imagine the Janet Reno wannabe, Temporary Governor "Korrupt" Kate Brown may get nervous enough to actually employ force against the militia, and if she does, they have won the day, whether they survive, are jailed, or die in battle. Korrupt Krackpot Kate already tried to steamroll the FBI into attacking the militia out in Harney County, but they wisely refused her screamy demands.
Stalemate ALWAYS favors the side with the best logistics, and that is NOT the militia. They have had supply problems since Day One. The FBI knows this. KKKate ought to know this, but she is handicapped in the same way Gauleiter Janet Reno was: they both are gender-confused people.
Cruz, Rubio and iJEB! have bought into a failed concept, amnesty, most likely at the of Reince Priebus and his gang of lefty thieves.
This is the RNC position that GOPes can't win without the "support" of the invaders, so invader ass must be kissed. The invaders realize that Mister smiley-nice GOPe does NOT bring welfare dollars, and they can't eat the soccer balls previously given them at photo ops. The (D)onks allowed them to invade the USA, have made Government speak their lingo and have given them welfare dollars. The invaders don't give a flying fig about our Constitution, and they are in no rush to replace the blacks, who they dispise, as the bottom class of Americans. They are content to let the (D)s protect them in their uncertain status. All that "path to citizenship" crap is eyewash, put out there to dull the fervor of deporting them as we know we need to. The DNC has out-thought the RNC on this issue, and trotting out iJEB!, Cruz or Rubio with a van full of soccer balls changed nothing. Beck probably knew that, but he is so desperate to replace Rush at the pinnacle of talk radio that he has fallen in with these culture killers in the Establishment RNC.
....is something I have the basic equipment for, but haven't done yet. The main reason is that lead bullets ("boolits") have to be speed controlled unless you crimp on a copper Gas Check, or else the hot powder burns lead onto the bore, and this can happen in just a few rounds. This limits lead bullet usefulness to practice and target shooting, for the most part. Generally, you don't want your lead bullets going over 1,000 fps. Most boolit people have some Sooper Secrit lube that they they somehow get to stick to the lead boolit (soaking it on, baking it on, squishing it on under pressure), and various claims are made that (whatever) lube cuts down barrel leading or even prevents it entirely. I am SOOOO skeptical, sorry, and I have the barrel-scrubbing calluses to prove it.
Leading is a factor of lead alloy hardness (Brinell), heat of the powder flame and speed of the bullet after ignition of the primer and powder. Leading occurs by flame-cutting of the base of the lead boolit by the powder burning, or by smearing of the sides of the lead boolit in the bore as it travels from the chamber to the muzzle, or a combo of both types (the usual case). The general solution is to go to bullets with copper skins, either plating or actual copper jackets which the lead cores are swaged (pressed) into. Those are expensive, running 1/2 again as much to 2 1/2 times as much as a cast lead boolit bought outright, or four times as much as one cast at home. Even more expensive is the all-copper bullet.
Along comes a new anti-leading process entirely. Not a lube of any kind. POWDER COATING!
UPDATED with great comments, to which I have added my editorial musings...
...and the quest is to find a source for reloading data to push 9mm Luger to +P+ pressure for a carbine.
It seems that the lawyers have scared off all the folks who have modified race guns and shoot IDPA Major Power Nine, and they won't publish their data. My carbine is a KelTec Sub Rifle 2000, with aftermarket spring & buffer block. It's fully-supported chamber is fine for +P+. I've been shooting NATO in it, and it loves that ammo, which is +P, sort-of.
To aid in the quest, I've laid in some Ramshot Silhouette powder and some Hodgdon HS-6 powder. I have some Xtreme Bullets 124gr CPRN and some once-fired brass, mostly Federal. All I need now is the data.
I intend to start by duping the NATO load. Father Frog's page shows me that. After that, my development will trend towards max loads of slower powders, since I have a long barrel to accelerate those FMJ pills with. I'm thinking of IMR 4227, but I only have room for 7 grains or so.
I wish I could find out what the Canadian Defense Ministry used for powder in their famous "Canadian Parabellum" loading, a HOT SMG round. They haven't made any since the Fifties when the West went to NATO, then later to STANAG standard. Supposedly, that round would wreck anything except a Sten or a FN Hi-power. It also used a lighter bullet to give more room for powder.
The one daredevil I found data from said that he loads up to 7.2-gr of HS-6 behind a 115 FMJ and barely makes 1350fps in a 4.9" racegun barrel. That gives him his Major Nine Power Factor, just barely. That's 450 #/' ME. That load should make 465 #/' ME. In a carbine, that should give 1750 fps and 782 #/' ME. Hornady's tables say that makes the carbine a useful battle tool* out to 200 yards or so. Pressure is a guess, but likely to be 37KCUP or under. Proof is 42KCUP.
For comparison, the above figures resemble what a normal .357 Remington Magnum 125-gr JHP will do out of a lever rifle.
Interesting quest. Right on the edge. Yes. Herr Luger would be impressed.
Note that in that post, I never said that I was against the use of Militia, and I think that if you had followed this blog for much of the eleven years it has been out here, you should know that by now. I fully support the idea of Militia, and while I don't fit into either category of it, organized or un-organized anymore, due to age, there is nothing to say that I couldn't assist a militia unit to become operational. In fact, I performed duty in the Air National Guard along lines connected to this (logistics planning, exercise, testing and evaluation in Organized Militia units).
The Internet is a fine tool for assisting the assembly of Militia, at least for now. If the Militia "movement" really gets going, I expect the Government to attempt to end the use of Internet for that purpose. Good luck to them, there are many, many savvy IT people who would help establish a new network almost immediately.
How does one get a militia unit going? Talk is cheap so I'll spend some of that coin...
To start with, a leader is needed. The definition of leader here is largely one of communicator. The leader is probably going to have been a good communicator all along. The leader decides to form a unit, and when drawing the plans, the leader FIRST considers mission: the employment of the unit, and it's scope of mission. This could range from defending a few blocks of a neighborhood against invaders from outside of that area, all the way up to defending large chunks of a major political sub-division, such as several counties. Note that the drift of this paragraph is on defense of a slice of land and it's buildings, etc. This is how most militia units come into being: they are NOT force-projection units, they ARE areal defense units. Militia can act in force projection, but to do so requires a huge leap of transition from a few folks defending their neighborhood when the usual order fails, up to and including a unit capable of travelling long distances, supporting itself away from it's home area and performing missions NOT related to simple areal protection. This is several orders of magnitude more complex in all organizational and logistical respects.
To relate this to the Harney County, Oregon situation, Ammon Bundy brought his people hundreds of miles and then took over a Government compound, declaring it and the extensive land it controlled to have changed hands and not be controlled by the Bureau of Land Management anymore. That's a tall order for a militia mission, and the military would probably not even try that without the use of a battalion-sized unit (close to 1,000 troops). If contesting for land in this size range, a military unit might have to be a Division or greater. Bundy does not have even a platoon available, maybe not more than a rifle squad. (See this Wiki, down a ways under "Armies") Even if Bundy were to attract a few hundred more folks to join his militia, he wouldn't have more than two companies at best. Given the remoteness of his objective, at least half of his force will have to be engaged in resupply at all times. Logistics theory and practice does not favor success of his operation. Weather in that area is barely better than sub-arctic at present, with daytime highs in the twenties and night-time lows near or below zero. If this report is accurate, Bundy's militia did not come properly equipped to hold the territory they have seized.
The lesson here is quite clear: if you are to have a successful militia, and we NEED successful militia, it has to be formed from a plan which includes it's SPECIFIC mission, not a political concept, but a military mission, definable in military terms. Ammon Bundy's militia seems to have been formed more along the lines of a political debating society, what we call an "activist" group nowadays, but as one who has performed military duty out in the cold Northwest winters, AND one who has performed in a debating society/activist group, I'm here to tell you that there is ZERO crossing-over between the two experiences. Sorry, Commenter Richard, I do concur with your political objectives, but they cannot be accomplished this way in Harney County, Oregon.
I am totally for Militia. Militia have two purposes: suppressing crime very locally when civil authorities cannot, and suppressing tyrannical Government on a scale up to National. With a HUGE stretch of the imagination, one might say that Bundy the Younger has the second mission in mind. That's all I am going to give him, because everything else about his occupation of the Malheur Wildlife Refuge HQ buildings is a disaster.
First, he claims to lead a paramilitary force, a Militia. If you lead such a force, as Commander, you have many responsibilities, such as training and equipping your troops, and maintaing good order and discipline throughout all phases of operations. Bundy seems to have planned well enough as to logistics, but that is all we can see or know about his outfit. The biggest decision for any Militia leader is when to deploy on an operation. Sometimes this is obvious, such as against criminal gangs terrorizing your Militia operating area. Sometimes it is NOT obvious, like the Malheur operation.
Malheur is just another piece of territory controlled by the Bureau of Land Management. Oregon has many such pieces of land. Has Bundy declared war upon the BLM and by logical extension, the entire Federal Government? A case can be built that such is his actual operation, and if so, it deserves to fail, and I will now tell you why.
The Federal Government has too much power, uses that power in very ugly ways, and needs to be dialed back to a Constitutional level. Okay, now that we have THAT out in the open, how is that BEST done? Bundy has apparently decided that it is best done by Militia occupying land and buildings, and he had moved his Militia to do that. Here is why he will fail, and then I will list why his failure will set back the program to dial back the Federal Government's power by many, many years.
Just like the two previous Militia operations, Bundy Ranch and Sugar Pine Mine, the tactic of the Feds will be to do nothing but wait. After a month or so, if previous form is followed, the Militia will declare victory and go home. Their declaration of victory will be hollow, however. They will have achieved NOTHING permanent, and the Feds, on the other hand, will have more press-fodder with which to vilify the entire idea of Militia. In other words, the Malheur operation will be a failure, because the only advantage at the end will go to the Feds, not the Militia.
Okay, by now, you must be screaming at your computer monitor, "Hey Rivrdog, if YOU are so smart, how would YOU stop these abuses of Federal power." That would be a fair question to ask, and I would answer it by saying that Militia needs to be prepared, it needs to be openly prepared, it needs to be universally prepared, and when the fight finally comes, the Feds will lose, because they will be seen as having their jackbooted thugs killing ordinary Americans for merely exercising their right to defend themselves. I believe that the mere raising of Militias in an open manner will eventually provoke the Feds into an armed confrontation, and no deployment of Militia is necessary. We wait, they will come to us. Part of the Second Amendment EXPRESSLY permits formation and maintenance of Militia.
We are already at war with the Feds, and the Feds are fighting this war with Psychological Warfare strategies and tactics, and we are losing it so far, mostly because we have failed to prepare for the use of PsyWar. In other words, Bundy has oversimplified the PsyWar (if he sees the use of PsyWar at all, I'm not sure he does). He sees it as a local thing (he has already lost that skirmish, the locals hate his ops) and maybe as a national thing to try to galvanize the right-wing base. He DOES NOT see it as a fight which involves every American citizen, as it eventually must.
More simply put, the Feds and their sycophant allies in the MSM now have a huge public relations weapon with which to bash the Right. It will also be used to bash the Second Amendment and it will be used as the basis for MORE federal regulation of public lands, not LESS regulation.
Bundy has lost before he started, and every day he stays at Malheur, the loss gets worse.