Various loosely-connected groups, most connected only by the fact that they have standardized their armaments, have announced that they will "Defend Roseburg" when POTUS makes his "sell the angst" trip there tomorrow.
Ummmm, okay then. Since the groups are using military terms, and will be armed with military-looking weapons (which they prefer to carry openly, don'tcha know), let's consider their operation from a military perspective (because you can be sure that the Secret Service and Homeland Security will).
- A military operation is always preceded by an operations plan. Other than "show up", "Defend" has given adherents few instructions which could be considered part of an op-plan. One must presume that the "Defend" leaders will assign protest locations, etc, on the fly as their folks show up. This operation looks very un-military.
- A military operation generally is led by leaders who have had experience leading other operations. There are two possibilities to consider here: Bundy Ranch and Sugar Pine Mine. Both of those operations were carried out by coalitions of Constitutionalists, with the organization Oath Keepers being the glue that held the outfit together. Let's look at Oath Keepers, shall we?
Oath Keepers started out about ten years ago (or that's when I became aware of them). Initially, they had one mission, to remind members of the military and police departments of their duty to their Constitution, and to do this, they promulgated a list of the "Ten Orders we must never obey". I signed their pledge, as did a number of my police buddies of the time. The Ten Orders are obvious, because they would be the orders of a dictator to facilitate a dictatorial coup d'etat and suspension of the Constitution. I still believe in Oath Keepers' proscription of those Ten Orders.
Then "mission creep" happened at Oath Keepers. The outfit decided to assume Militia duties.
Bundy Ranch happened, then Sugar Pine Mine, and at the last one, the Oath Keepers appeared as a Militia from the start, and carried out an armed Militia operation, holding ground by force of arms. They never exchanged fire in either of their operations, but they were very well prepared to. They had good discipline and were "well-regulated" in the full sense of the term.
While I was encouraged by Oath Keepers' obvious good discipline in their first two Militia operations, what they did in both cases amounted to a staring contest, and the Federal forces blinked first, both times.
Oath Keepers is still not proven under fire.
They might get that chance, though, and within 24 hours, in Roseburg, Oregon. In case Oath Keepers hasn't employed any intelligence for their operation, I will give them the benefit of mine, which in the past, has involved working directly with the Secret Service's Presidential Protection Detail. I have actually gotten to inspect the Presidential vehicles and talk with the Special Agent In Charge of that unit (at the time, he was a good friend of the family).
The intel nugget for Oath Keepers: This will NOT be a Bundy Ranch or Sugar Pine Mine. You will NOT be dealing with some over-promoted BLM Enforcement Supervisor and his storm troopers. You will be dealing with the Presidential Protection Detail, which just happens to be the best at what they do of any such units. This Detail also has wide latitude to employ deadly force in the protection of the President. They do not have to issue deadly force warnings. If they detect a threat to the POTUS, they will shoot first, and they will kill. Period. End of story.
If the Detail has to employ deadly force against Oath Keepers, you can bet that every one who ever had the first contact with them will be heavily interrogated. I expect to be contacted in that instance, myself. The organization WILL be taken apart, and that will be the end of THAT story.
If you plan to travel to Roseburg tomorrow, here is the best advice from a freedom-loving patriot: Stay home. Don't loan your car to anyone to travel there, either. We patriots do have a mission which might eventually result in our defending our Constitution by force of arms.
Roseburg is not that mission. Oath Keepers may not be that militia, either. This could easily be their "bridge too far".