Nom de plume: Rivrdog

Congress wants to exempt itself from Obamacare

Yep, you read the healine correctly. Now read the story behind it.

As usual, Henry Waxman tries to spin it madly. He says, essentially, that we might find that our leges are already exempted from Obamacare's increased costs.

Isn't it about time that the SCOTUS took this matter under the advisement of it's own motion, and looked at all these huge, previously unknown, cost increases? SCOTUS determined that these fees were "taxes" last year, but no tax can automatically increase by itself ad infinitum, so, if they are taxes, only the fees out there at the time of enactment are legal, since Art 1 Sec 7&8 of the Constitution says that Congress gets to have it's say on new taxes, and Congress hasn't had that say.

The next American Revolution

Will go off without the revolutionaries firing a shot, but it will bring down the Socialist Government as surely as if ten million men at arms rose up to oppose the Government.

Note to Rivrsis: yes, I am aware that the Government is not officially socialist, but it's masters sincerely desire that outcome, and you can only call skunk cabbage a salad green until it's time to take a bite of the salad.

Back to the revolution. To succeed, any revolution must have popular support. Not overwhelming popular support, but enough of it to make the government fall. In the case of the USA, I estimate that no less than 30% of the citizens would have to participate in this revolution for it to succeed.

What will be the weapons of the revolutionaries?

Their checkbooks and banking programs.

The ultimate revolution, and one for which the Government can never prepare (it is actively preparing for an armed revolution), is the cut-off of it's money.

What is the biggest obstacle to an armed revolution? The taking class is the biggest obstacle. There is a huge surplus of "cannon fodder" right now. The Government pays the way for probably 40% of the folks, and part of the way for another 10-15%. If an armed revolution broke out, the Government would simply enlist all those dependent folks to help put down the revolt. It's hard for an armed revolution to succeed when the partisans are outnumbered 2-to-1 by those who would turn them in, if not actually fight them. An armed revolution cannot fight both the government and it's colossal army of government dependent citizens. If you, John Q. Partisan, loaded up your car with your S.H.T.F. gear and guns and headed for your sooper-secrit militia rendezvous, you would be reported by snitches fifteen times before you got there. You would be engaged by hostile fire before you could join up with your putative comrades, and the armed revolution would die a-borning.

Consider a different revolution. It's three or four years down the road, and the Government has borrowed so much money and issued so much fiat paper that it now takes 75% of the revenue stream to just pay interest.

The revolutionaries have prepared, they have stocked up on food and put their taxpaying cash aside in their mattresses, or in gold, or some other secure place. On April 15th of that year, when the Feds normally finish collecting the 80% of their entire revenue take for the year, that huge chunk of the Federal necessary fails to come in. The folks who aren't takers, over half of that category or about 15-20% of the citizenry , just do not pay (the takers don't pay any tax anyway). The Treasury Department plays the pea and shells game for maybe 90 days, but then the defaults start cascading, and within 30 days, the conservative opposition asks for and gets the resignation of every liberal congresscritter and Administration hack. New elections are held on short notice, and since the stock market has crashed and the Dow is at 10% of it's pre-revolt level, no one can write those big checks to support new liberal candidates, so they lose and a veto-proof conservative government is installed. It immediately cuts Federal payroll by 60% and Federal expense by 40%, balances the budget, creates a surplus, starts paying down the national Debt, and passes a Balanced Budget Amendment.

Could the Socialists counter this tax revolt in the making? They would see it coming, as millions of taxpayers adjusted their witholding level to the legal minimum and stopped making their Estimated Tax payments (quarterlies). They might even make a splash and hurriedly try to jail the leaders of the tax resistance. For every one who went to the cushy Federal pen, a thousand would rise to take that resister's place, and soon, the Feds would stop that gambit. After all, they didn't convince the illegals to stop barging into the country, did they?

Nope, anything the Feds did to counter the tax resistance would end in disaster, and the fight against the resistance would be doomed on the first day the welfare checks didn't go out. Those takers are fickle, you see. They want their FREE SHIT, and if they don't get it, then some bullets would fly. It would be the welfare class shooting up the cities in rage at their FREE SHIT being cut off. There might be some riotous skirmishes, but sorry, Three Percenters, the guns aren't going to win this war, cash will.

That is the future of Revolution in this country, and the quicker the Socialists try to ram their failed system down the throats of the taxpayers of this Nation, the sooner that Revolution will come.

Socialism is doomed, you see, as long as there are enough people who still believe in earning their way. For now, that's slightly over half, but that half is plenty more than enough to carry off a tax revolt. 

Thursday Thuds, post-Holiday edition

Thud the First: Heard on Fox News yesterday morning at about 10:34 PST: "Survival is the new Prosperity"...referring to the state of small business in the good-ole US of A. Word!

Thud the Second: The New Yawk Stock Exchange soared yestiddy, presumably because of the dreaded "Cliff" being in the rear-view mirror, but, guess what? So did the Gold price (fell back some today, though). Verrrrry interesting. Institutions are still buying gold despite all the supposed bully news from DeeCee? Something does not compute, and my guess is that the Street is very wary of the "fiscal solutions" involved. Also, TCWIC (Tax Cheat What's In Charge) Timmy Geithner now says we've reached the statutory borrowing limit, but, hey, that's okay because he can cook the books for at least two months to keep the downgrade wolf at bay. Of course, if any of us ran the books of any corporation the way he runs the books of the Federal Government, we'd all be in jail...

Thud the Third: The Grand Old Party continues it's collapse into political futility. The best available economic minds (Simpson-Bowles Commission) recommended a Fiscal Cliff solution with a ratio of Revenue enhancement (tax increases) to Spending increase of 1:2.6. The GOP just signed off on a plan with a ratio of 1:41  I forgot how to do mathematical proportion calculations or I would tell you what factor of excess past Simson-Bowles that number is, but it seems to be at least an 800% departure. The GOPes approved of that? Now we all go over a different cliff, and it is such a tall cliff, we will have a LOT of time to consider the error of our ways before we impact the base of that cliff at terminal velocity. The GOPes seem split, but in the entire House, there are only 25 or so true fiscal conservatives, so it's not likely that anything will change with the Speakership of John Boehner (just in: Boehner retained his seat). The TEA party types seem inclined to try to replace all the GOP fiscal wimps with conservative who have spines, but can the TEA party folks get it together again in 2014 like they did in 2010? I'm not putting any money on that outcome.

Thud the Fourth: Last night, Leno tried a zinger on prospective Secretary of State John Effing Kerry. Leno noted that Kerry's face is shaped more like a horse than a human, so he sould be called "Secretariat Kerry". Few laughed, and it immediately occurred to me that Leno missed an opportunity because he was looking at the wrong end of the horse...

Thud the Fifth: As I indicated here, Mad Mayor Bloomberg of New Jack City seems to be trying to seize control of the entire gun-control movement. He made another move in that direction by sitting down with various Civil Rights Deniers and Former Congresswoman Gabby Giffords. My guess is that he is actively recruiting her to be the new poster-girl for gun control. She would, of course, replace Sarah Brady in that role (no links to enemies!).

Fiscal Cliff: the solution

There's been nothing less than a cubic buttload of crap flung about on the "Fiscal Cliff negotiations". I might not be a degreed economist, but I know a solution to a problem when I see one. Here's the end of the crap-slinging.

I propose a true compromise:

• Set the definition of "Rich" at $400,000 Adjusted Gross Income (for a couple, single would be $225,000). Everyone below that level keeps their present tax rates.
• Raise the personal income taxes on everyone making over that amount to the pre-Bush level.
• Adopt a new personal income tax deduction: Any new hire of any employee in the "Rich" taxpayer's business, in a position previously closed for three years, or never before existing, is a tax credit ("consultants" won't count, it has to be a permanent employee, with filed W-4). Negotiate the tax credits for new hires on a sliding scale, so that the money put into those new hires can't create a tax credit exceeding the total tax liability of today's tax rates.
• Generate a new personal income tax deduction for salaried taxpayers who are NOT business owners. This deduction would allow an investment tax credit for investing in a business (not including buying their stock or bonds) for the specific purpose of allowing that business to expand it's work force. This would require a new item of accountantcy, but it's worth it for the results it generates.

With this system, some "Rich" will pay more, but none will have to, and if they don't, it will be because PRIVATE SECTOR jobs have been created.

Isn't it supposed to be all about job creation?

This idea is a "win-win". It lets the (D)onks crow that they've taxed the "Rich", something that, if not accomplished by 010113 at 0001 EST, will cause them all to keel over dead (or so they have inferred). It lets the GOPes claim that they've protected the Private Sector, and facilitated Private Sector job creation.

Let's git 'er Done!

Gun fanciers were right to worry about Freedom Group/Cerberus

Cerberus just un-married Freedom Group, which also just dumped their stake in Bushmaster. Since Freedom Group controls the stock of almost, if not all, US gunmakers, is this a sign of things to come? Can we find Michael Bloomberg's fingerprints on the smoking sell-order?

Is this a sign of why Obama is playing it cool, that gun restrictions will come from an unexpected direction?

How many Chevrolets have killed folks inside and outside of those vehicles, but do we see a move to dump their stock when someone gets killed in/by a car? None. As this curmudgeon sees it, this is a radical departure from the usual calm reflection before movement of money in hedge funds. Gun stocks have done very well this past year, some making 35% ROI. This move is all emo, all the time, and it HAS to be the result of great pressure by a financier(s) or the government. Anyone want to FOIA some SEC email to Cerberus? Actually, I'd bet on a hastily put-together cabal of large investors manipulating money and thereby, the fund, acting on orders or the suggestion of either a super-investor or the government.

In related news, it's interesting that the Lanza kid was a richy-rich kid, isn't it? Mom had a quarter-mil/year in alimony from banker ex-hubby, $pendy house, and too many guns to keep track of, apparently.

The "Fiscal Cliff", and why we'll go over it

Easy answer, because it's now been fleshed out by our President as a "Cloward-Piven" strategy. In other words, it will be a manufactured crisis, the mother of all such actually, during which, the President will "take charge", thereby demonstrating his "leadership" and (probably) creating an un-Constitutional power grab of the economic (appropriation) reins from Congress.

The Holy Grail for Obama is not taxing the rich, a simple smokescreen for the present, it is to be able to bust the debt-ceiling at will. If he creates a fiscal disaster, he will then tell us that only more "stimulus" spending will see us safely out of the disaster, and so he will order the Treasury to print that money, he will order it spent (likely added to present stimulus law), and we will add another few trillion to the debt.

If the House of Congress finds it's spine, and I'm NOT betting on that, all it can really do is start impeachment proceedings, but the while the (GOP) House might impeach, the (D) Senate won't convict, so that's a stalemate. Bill Clinton was impeached, and it hasn't stopped the (D)emocratic Party from calling him the "elder statesman".

After some time has passed, and with as much delay as can be arranged, Obama will have to face the Supreme Court, which will probably declare that part of the National Debt he created by fiat to be illegal.

Okay, what then?

Nothing, then. Unlike FDR, who actually stopped his stimulus programs when the SCOTUS ordered him to cease and desist, Obama won't stop. Is the SCOTUS going to hold Obama personally responsible? No. Is the SCOTUS going to hold him in contempt and order the US Marshals to arrest him and put him in jail? No, you and I would get that treatment, but Obama won't.

Obama will have ignored the Constitution and the SCOTUS and gotten away with it.

What other part of the Constitution might he ignore next? Hard to say, but all the anti-gun filk would beg him to give similar treatment to the Second Amendment. There's a physical threat to his tyranny there, after all. He might try to muzzle Internet dissent and trash the First Amendment while he's at it. Along the way to trashing those pesky First and Second Amendments in the Bill of Rights, the Fourth and Fifth Amendments will probably go away, too.

Bottom line, by the time 2016 rolls around, there will be NO doubt that Obamalamadingdong intends to stay in office as long as he wants to (read: until he can groom a "Manchurian" candidate who will take his orders), so the (D)emocratic Party will just ignore the election and not even nominate a candidate to replace him.

Blue sky theory? You bet, but it's how some of his advisers think, and Obama himself has never had or expressed an original idea, he IS the product of his advising staff.

Yep, these are Valerie Jarrett's ideas as well as mine, I'd bet on that. We know, to a moral certainty, that what Valerie Jarrett wants, Valerie Jarrett gets. What Valerie Jarrett advises, Obama acts upon.

By this time next month, it will be unlikely that this Nation will be able to be rescued from total tyranny without resort to arms, and that uprising, when and if it occurs, will be a mere blip in history, a "beer-hall putsch", a short interruption in the Greater Glory of Our Glorious Leader.

All Hail, etc.

"Uncle Cliffy" update

Your Uncle Cliffy "Fiscal Cliff" update for today. Required reading done? Okay then, now that it seems certain that both sides are willing to go "over the cliff", what will the downhill slide look like? Not too grim at first, says this article.

Not saying don't prepare, if you can, but this isn't going to be, or even look like, Armageddon.

Go over cliff, trash economy, dump Obamacare?

Think it could happen in that order? Discuss.

Let's call a Spade a Shovel, shall we?

Who says your old Rivrdog can't be PeeCee, eh?

This post isn't about me, though, it's about speculative wagering passing as commodities trading. InTrade.com has been forced out of business by the Feddle Gummint because it's a betting house masquerading as a commodities broker. Or maybe a commodities broker marketing wagers. Or something.

John Stossel, Fox' great tilter-at-windmills, writes a piece about the action.

I follow a different path here. I'm of a more conservative school of investors, and I believe that even options trading is nothing but wagering. Development of "Spiders" or Exchange-Traded-Funds, is all about wagering, not investment.

Put it this way: if you want to buy a piece of a company, follow it's fortune with your investment, and trade that piece of a company on an open exchange, fine, you are an investor, and you deserve to call yourself one.

If you want to make a wager on whether a company's stock will rise or fall next week, you are not an investor, you are simply a bettor. Income from betting is simple, personal income, and should remain that way. Calling it investment income muddies up the tax waters and shouldn't continue as tax collection practice.

All these side-bets on the economy have a name: derivatives. All derivatives trading needs to be completely separate from trading a company's public stock, but it isn't. Put and call options, futures trading in common stock (as opposed to futures trading in commodities such as wheat or oil) and all forms of speculation on currencies need to be regulated as wagers, taxed as wagers and called wagers. The exchanges which permit their "trading" (read: making and collecting bets) should not be allowed to host trading in common stocks or bonds.

Read this post by Oleg Volk. He challenges the current and probably phony Government report on inflation with his own calculations. If the Government can lie to us that badly about something basic such as the loss of purchasing power of our dollars, how can we trust them to regulate sophisticated instruments of trading such as derivatives? If those derivatives are not regulated, though, and they become entrenched in the very fabric of our economy, then the entire economy is based on false pretenses. There is ample history of what happens next. The "fiscal cliff" isn't even a minor pot-hole compared to that fiscal debacle, which will properly be called a collapse.

Fiscal Cliff? It doesn't exist.

"Fiscal Cliff"-gazer? Nothing to see here, move along, please.

We, the People, can end this "fiscal cliff" nonsense. We have 16.5 calendar months to do it, not just one month as the doomsayers have screamed at us from our TVs and computer screens.

The Federal Government, through it's IRS, collects income and business taxes 470 days after they are payable. The fiscal cliff doomsayers seem to have forgotten that fact.

Yes, if nothing is done in the next 32 days, the tax rates will all rise on January First. We don't pay those new rates until our tax bills are payable on April 15th, 2014. Yes, employers and your other payers such as pensions, etc, will try to adjust the withholding upwards next month to reflect the new rates, but you, the taxpayer, can adjust them back downward via an IRS Form W-4 With Worksheet. The process is simple: you just claim more dependents. I don't have the current "red flag" level, but you didn't used to raise any Red Flags with the IRS unless you claimed more than 9 dependents.

Guess what else happens later in 2014, Dear Readers? RIIIIGHT, Elections for Congress, The Senate and your local yokels.

If We The People push this issue to or near 4/15/14, it WILL effect the 2014 Congressional elections. If the REAL "fiscal cliff" is then passed, the (D)emocrats will get the blame in the voting booths, and in January of 2015, Obumbler the wannabe Socialist is done. Yeah, he will occupy the office for the next two years, but with a hostile Senate and House, will get nothing done. Should he then try to rule by Executive Order, the new GOP Congress will then impeach, convict and remove him from office. Joe Biden doesn't have many virtues, but way more than Obumbler, and he's far less of a Socialist.

Have a Merry Christmas, Happy Holiday, and pleasant New Year. There's no Fiscal Cliff to fall over, over.