Nom de plume: Rivrdog

Hooray, Hooray...

...The First of May, outdoor f**king starts today. So does outdoor city-trashing by the commie-sympathizing anarchist crowd.

Well, we have riot cops and cameras for that. Didn't used to have the cameras. In those days, we just took the 42" white riot batons and went to town on the rioters. One small move out of form with a riot baton today though, and you are sued, screwed, blued and tatooed and the Black Bloc wins.

I couldn't do that work today.

Gimme that old-time...New Video Added!

Old Time police work:

Firing range work. Los Angeles County Sheriff's Office, 1938. Note the use of the old single-action Police Positive qualification course. Note the 25-yard accuracy, not taught today. Some of the double-action Combat Stages are taught today, but how about that Detective drawing from a shoulder rig, spinning to face the target and getting off 3 minute-of-heart hits in a second or so? Or the patrol officer in the "Gang Buster" stage taking out three targets in less than 2 seconds? No Glocks there, six-shooters only. At the end, a Marching Fire course by what appears to be Navy officers with 1911 service sidearms. The winner got a sword! Note that Deputies had to qualify once a month, too. Sloppy fire as the NYPD or Boston PD have displayed in modern times was not tolerated then. Note the "Thompson Typewriter" work, all aimed fire, no spray-and-pray allowed.

Motor Corps Drill team. Multnomah County Sheriff's Motor Corps Drill Team practice, 1950's or so. MCSO had the World Championship Motor Corps Drill Team for quite some time, from back in the Thirties through most of the Forties. Most MCSO patrol officers rode motors, which were far more suitable to the unimproved roadways of the County than patrol cars. Mostly, they rode Harleys, although I think there were some years on Indians, too. When I signed onto the force in 1973, there were a few old Deputies who had been on that Motor Corps still around, and the Department still had a few Harley Police Solos. Somewhere, there are some old videos of the full Drill Team performing, but I can't locate them right now. The Auld Corps were spectacular as a full Drill Team. Their Human Pyramid on motors was never equalled. This vid has a one-bike example of that pyramid, with maybe 12 Deputies hanging on to one machine. Now multiply that with about a dozen machines, and all linked together with Deputies, all moving as one. That was the Human Pyramid. UPDATE! Check out this video for more Drill Team action.

Old-time Police Work. Stirs the blood, yessir.

The Dorner Disaster

Every so often, a teachable moment comes along. Most of them are under-appreciated for the lessons they could teach us, and the Dorner crime wave in the Los Angeles Basin will probably follow that pattern. My sense of doing good works requires me to rise to the duty of outlining this lesson, though, so here it is.

PawPaw did a good short blog on what happened, with good linkage, and I posted my take on this lesson over there as a comment, so go to his post and take a look at it (and my attached comment) from the point of view of two old cops with the experience and the writing ability to offer their own profession, then the entire Nation, a valuable lesson in self-reliance.

I haven't decided whether it's important to highlight Dorner's manifesto as to it's statements of political affiliation, because, after all, it could be disinformation, and a good analyst considers that. The statement of political affiliation does seem to check out with the guy's known personal history, though.

The politics can be set aside for the moment though, so as to consider the threat that Dorner's type of  "asymetrical warfare" poses for all of us. It doesn't really make any difference if Dorner was coming from the Left, the Right or if he was a Jihadist, the threat is the same.

Consider my statement in my comment to PawPaw's blog: this guy's rampage has turned the second-biggest Metroplex in the USA absolutely on it's ear, and the reason Los Angeles and it's near-neighbors are functioning at all this morning is because martial law hasn't been declared (yet). Dorner's plan, in his terror rampage, was to cause a lot of disruption, but he seemed to forget the physics: no matter how tactically-proficient one terrorist is, there is a limit on how large of an area he may terrorize. Five Dorners at work on their terroristic tasks would have shut down the entire metroplex. Five such large metroplexes under seige in the country would shut down the entire country.

Think about that. This is the teachable moment. Just look how few determined and trained people it takes to disrupt our way of life.

Okay, has the lesson soaked in?

Good!

What do we do about it?

There is, people, only one answer: we have to re-assume the responsibility for our own protection that we gave up when this country became heavily urbanized five generations ago. Back then, had Dorner sprung forth, life would have gone on, but men would have been a little more wary as they went about their daily routine, perhaps keeping their rifles next to them instead of in the nearby closet. They would have paid attention to the latest dispatches received via telegraph, then passed by word of mouth around their towns and cities. At some point, the terrorist would be killed, and that would be the end of it. If the terrorist was captured, he would be unlikely to have been given the opportunity to spread his poison, and he would have been executed soon, anyway. That's what would have happened if this had occurred 100 years ago.

I'm sure, if I read the blogs deep enough, I would find some that are sympathetic to Dorner, that support his position on perceived racial injustice at the least, and perhaps even some that support his "asymetrical warfare" method of dealing with it personally.

The most immediate lesson for us with the Dorner Affair?

Don't be too damn fast to surrender an iota more of your self-reliance to the Government. Yes, people, you really do need to have those semi-auto rifles that can "shoot all day", and the training, the ammo, the extra magazines, etc to employ them properly in your own defense. There aren't a lot of wannabe Dorners out there, but if they all got mass hysteria and decided to have a "Dorner Apocalypse", you would need the protection of that military-style rifle.

Too bad that in such a "Dorner Apocalypse", you would stand a much greater chance of getting killed by your own police force than by a terrorist.

"I want national stop-and-frisk" - Geraldo Rivera

Geraldo Rivera, whom some imagine to be a libertarian, shows his true colors on his weekend TeeVee program on Fox News. He wants the First, Second and Fourth Amendments to the Constitution suspended (or eliminated, he didn't say which).

This guy wants to run as a GOPer from Joisey? His biggest hero (literally, too!) is Governor Chris Christie, who we know here as "Tubby the One-Note Tuba" (but...I killed the UUUNIONS!).

Remember when we asked it here, and Joe asked it over at his place, "What Civil Rights will this Government come after next, after they trash the Second Amendment?"

The answer is in: it's to be the First and Fourth Amendments, which have to be highly modified to allow the NYPD practice known as "stop and frisk".

What stop and frisk is:

Basically, someone draws a circle around a bad part of town, where more crime than usual (what is usual?) is happening (in real estate sales, that's called redlining, and it's prohibited by Federal Law and legal precedent). Next, the right of persons in that outlined area to be totally free of unreasonable searches and seizures is modified, from the "Terry vs. Ohio" standard to one which says that it's up to the cop alone to decide what is reasonable, based on the cop's judgement, not a more severely-defined standard that could be agreed to by a jury or a judge. All persons within the outlined area have to submit to these searches upon the demand of a police officer, and even though the searches are not of the proper quality to always support probable cause to believe that a crime has occurred or is about to occur, evidence of a crime (carrying a concealed weapon, drugs, etc) may be booked and submitted because it is within a stop and frisk area. In any other place, a search of this poor evidentiary quality could not be used to support an affadavit of probable cause.

Geraldo Rivera evidently believes in totally suppressing crime, no matter how much of the Constitution he has to destroy to do it.

This is like saying that when the Philadelphia Eagles play the New England Patriots, the game is going to be a laugher, so we'll let Philadelphia do horse-collar tackles, blindside blocks, unlimited holding on the line, and all their penalties will be no more than 5 yards. New England will have to follow all the normal rules.

What's next, Geraldo? Judge Dredd?

Hitler started this way, you know. He set out to "clean up" Germany, to restore order from the street tumult of the inter-war period. Yep, Hitler cleaned up Germany all right. Now Geraldo Rivera wants to be Senator, and he's advocating the same sort of Constitution-ignoring purges as Hitler used.

Portland mall shooting - Updated X 2

Details still coming in, but at about 1530 PST, some male walked into the Clackamas Town Center mall, a large shopping mall located about 5 miles south of Portland, and opened fire with some sort of autoloading rifle. He hit 3 persons with 16-40 rounds, might have reloaded, roamed the mall for several minutes at least, then killed himself.

There was massive LE response to the mall, but law enforcement did not take the shooter under fire.

To my knowledge, Clackamas Town Center is NOT a gun-free zone. Clackamas County has a large number of CCW permitees.

Open Carry, or the lack thereof, might or might not be a factor. No civilian took the shooter under fire.

The masked shooter appeared to be a brick short of a full hod. As he walked, he yelled out, repeatedly, "I am the shooter", as if, with mask and rifle, dressed in camo top to bottom wasn't enough to convey that impression.

No information is available on the identity of victims, other than the living one was driven by ambulance to Oregon Health & Sciences University Hospital (with an ER 4 blocks away???). Notification of next-of-kin is underway for the dead victims.

The Sheriff is about to give a press conference,so I'll listen and report back.

*****************************************************************************

Reporting back, nothing new, other than reports of the shots fired range up to 40. Some vignettes:

• Some nurses and a physician shopping at the mall acted as battlefield medics
• 4 SWAT teams responded, and located the shooter "in record time". Okayyyy, what is that record, and was it possible that the shooter was already dead, and shoppers pointed out his dead ass to the SWATies?
• The Sheriff has closed the mall, Portland's largest at 1.4 million square feet, for a second day tomorrow. Who pays for THAT loss of business?
• Rumor, spread by a reporter at the Sheriff's press conference, is that the shooter was just fired from employment at the food court, where most if not all of the shooting took place (Rumor apparently not true).
• Rumor: mall officials put the population inside the mall at about 10,000 at the time of the shooting. If true, that makes this the biggie of mall shootings as far as people at direct risk goes.
• Observation: the cops doing the most good in there were the "Paul Blarts", the mall cops, who did the right thing and either sealed shops up with customers inside, or directed customers to the exits.
• The shooter has been "tentatively" identified, but the Sheriff is not releasing his name, or the names of the victims, at this time.
• The EffBeeEye and the FBATFE are assisting in the investigation. That probably guarantees more delay in the final report.
• No information on the shooter's weapon is available. The local station I watched, KATU, called the weapon "an automatic rifle" once, and "a semi-automatic rifle" once. Another station, the local FOX affiliate KPTV, called the weapon an "assault rifle". The Sheriff's people made no characterization of the shooter's weapon.

More details tomorrow.

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UPDATE: 121212 1030 PST: Just watched the morning newser by Sheriff Roberts, carried live on Fox News nationally. He ID'd the victims and the shooter. The shooter is a 22-year old nobody, who stole an AR15 rifle from a friend and used it in the mall. Shooter lived in a bad part of town called "felony flats", or "squirrel heights", the City calls it the "Brentwood-Darlington Neighborhood". The live victim is a 16 year old who, despite several rounds in her, managed to un-ass the scene and find rescue on her own. One tough girl! The Sheriff hinted that the toll was low partly because the shooter had malfunctions with the weapon. At least one witness reported the shooter aimed at him at short range and fired, missing completely, apparently confirming that the shooter was not proficient at all with the weapon's sights or instinctive aiming either.

Wrapping up, the best news here is that it will be very hard for the anti-gun filk to gin up the usual blood-dances, because this AR has been confirmed to be a stolen gun. The City of Portland has a mandatory lock-up ordinance for guns kept in residences, but it is limited to guns that children have access to. I would expect that Ceasefire Oregon (no link to the enemy) would now press Hizzoner to extend the ordinance to all weapons, even though we don't know at this point that the gun theft involved here was within Portland proper. Seems to me that this law was at least partially dealt with in Heller, wasn't it? Also, with the effective rate of fires presented by the shooter, a single-shot Cricket rifle could have been the weapon, certainly a military boltie like an Enfield.

Now for the teachable moment. Take the Tucson shooting, the Aurora shooting and this one. What do they all have in common? Whacko shooters who don't know how to run their weapons, thereby presenting opportunities for an armed bystander to fire on and neutralize them. This is especially the lesson here, with 10K shoppers and employees, plus unknown numbers of mall cops, ALL of whom were either unarmed or afraid to use their weapons.

I know what I would have done had I been there. I would have decided it was a good day to risk death, and I would have gone towards the shooter and initiated combat. I wasn't there, but I will forever wonder who WAS there who might have offered combat and didn't?

 

Thurdsay thoughts

Not thuds today, just musings from the ball of yarn that is my curmudgeonly mind...

Thought the first: City Administration Karma. Last night, I went to my first ever Neighborhood Association meeting (Kelley Creek Neighborhood Association). There were 40 or so of my neighbas there. Various items were discussed, including our sparse public transport schedule (3 buses all day long), stormwater management (which I steered into a discussion of coyote control, since they live and breed in the stormwater control project, aka, Kelley Creek), and a nice talk by the Chief of Police, to whom we directed a Standing-O, which he deserved for commanding the resolution of the recent Barista Murder case. Then some yadda-yadda about Citeh progress on, well, progressive things. Over all, it was worthwhile to go to the Middle School and sit through it, and guess what happened this ayem at first light? The Citeh swept my streets! This happens only infrequently, there IS a moderate rainstorm forecast for this weekend, and I would have had to go out to shovel bushels of heavy, wet leaves out of my 350' of street gutters, so this just saved me a bunch of work. Ta-Daaaah!

Thought the Second: The Sandy Effect. The upcoming election might have a "Sandy Effect" to it. No, not a Sandy Crowley effect, that was disgusting enough, but a Hurricane Sandy effect. Hurricane Sandy, a sometimes-Category Two blow, is headed North from Cuba right now. It's barely a hurricane after crossing the spine of the Cuban Sierra Madre, but it will re-intensify over the warm Gulf Stream. Overnight, the Eurpoean Model of weather-guessing has been verified, and the Euro Model puts Hurricane Sandy ashore, early next week, somewhere near New Jersey. It is currently forecast to track slightly inland of New Yawk Citeh, pulling the maximum storm surge it generates up the Hudson and East Rivers. There is a potential HUGE mess for the Mid-Atlantic and North East Coast from this storm, any that's not all. WAIT, THERE'S MORE! The storm will then convert to extra-tropical, be reinforced by a very strong Continental Polar air mass, and pound New England as "Perfect Storm II". It looks like the entire Eastern Seaboard from DeeCee north will be in a major hurricane/storm-recovery mode on Election Day. This means that Hurricane Sandy has a huge potential to affect the outcome of US History, even though the 'Cane will probably be no more than a Category-1 when it makes landfall. I suppose it's superfluous to remind readers that the Sandy Effect, should it happen, kills off votes in Blue States almost exclusively. Soooo...will the Won try some sort of emergency decree advancing or retarding the Election in affected states? Stay tuned, this will be interesting, verrrry interesting, as Sgt Schultz would say on Hogan's Heroes...

Thought the Third: I have decided to treat myself to a late Birthday Present. After studiously avoiding the Poodleshooter Caliber (5.56 NATO) and it's associated Stoner rifles for all these years I've been a gunny, I am now going to embrace it. but, I'm going all weird on the gunny world and I will still reject the Stoners. I'm ordering a Remington 7615P Patrol Rifle, a manually-operated (slide or pump action) carbine. It DOES take AR magazines, though. This purchase is in line with my survivalist thinking which says to have firearms chambered in the most popular calibers. I still don't think much of the .223/5.56 as a caliber with which to do battle, but I WILL be able to feed and shoot my rifle on the modern apocalyptic battlefield, should that ever happen. Also, as a non-EBR, the rifle might survive the first wave of confiscations which will hit the EBRs, should the Won get serious about disarming these younighty-states.

Thought the Fourth: The World Series. The Giant's Pablo Sandoval swats his way into the history books, only the fourth player ever to pound three home runs in a game during the Series. I watched Junior Griffey hit 5 in a game at the Kingdome in Seattle many years ago, but it wasn't the Series. Am I the only one who wonders why a guy who looks completely non-athletic could perform this feat? Did MLB think of making him take a doping test? Hmmmmm.

Thought the Fifth: Progressive Generals. When you make General or Admiral, there's politics involved. If you could ask my Dad, he'd confirm that, since he came up for Admiral after working for CNO ADM Hyman Rickover on the USS Nautilus project in the early-mid Fifties, and Rickover opposed his nomination in Congress, primarily for ego reasons ("I won't have another Admiral on my staff"). But, since politics has to be played, and the Progressives do have the majority of political power right now, there are bound to be Progressive General Officers. I do find it hard, however, to call a Progressive General officer a Republican, though, so as for YOU, General Powell, you are flying a false flag, SIR!

"It's a game!"

Says Jerry the Geek, as he escalates our tongue-in-cheek war over IPSC competition to headlines on his blog.

For a number of years, Jerry and I have had a good-natured back-and-forth about IPSC as a tool to sharpen one's gunny skills. My point to him has been, CONSTANTLY, that the better one gets at IPSC, the more one "games" the stages (have to, you don't win on speed and accuracy alone, you win on how you manage your shooting in the stages), then the less one is prepared for real-world gunfighting.

Okay then, first up, I have never been in a real-world gunfight, and that rates a Gold Star in my book, because I had several opportunities to kill desperadoes during my 25 years as a Patrol Deputy. I used other means to take them into custody, and never popped a cap in anger, though. Over the years, I had plenty of training, though, some in the classroom, some at the range in "shoot villages" (remarkably like IPSC, but with the only objective to shoot/not shoot as the situation called for, and when shooting, make a STOP of the bad guy) and much more in discussion with other officers, several of whom HAD survived gun battles.

The problem I have with IPSC is that their shooting stages have too many rules that force you away from your alert level. When facing a gunfight, or involved in one, the survivor (there are no real winners in a death match, only survivors and non-survivors) is the one who maintains the highest alert level and maintains his/her ability to respond out of that alert level. The slightest failure of attention, when it's gunny vs. gunny for ALL the marbles, is usually fatal to the lower alert-level side.

This is where training comes in. Real training teaches one to have autonomous reactions to things like weapon malfunctions, varying terrain or footing, changes in cover, new threats when you are concentrating on the one you got your gun out for, etc. With the side issues of gunfighting made autonomous, the person involved in a fight for life with a gun can put all their focus on the opponent, where it must be in order to survive. That's how real-world gunfights are survived: training, lots of it, never stop training.

One of my favorite examples of how IPSC ruins a defensive gunner for combat involves all the safety rules. Range Safety is of maximum importance. Having spent a definable part of my life on firing ranges, I appreciate safety, and was a certified NRA RSO for several years. Unsafe ranges don't stay around, and unsafe shooters are booted off of safe ranges quickly. That said, when The Rulz have you hold your feet just so while you fire a stage, you are ruining your defensive training. Foot-faults don't matter in gunfights, foot CONTROL does matter, but if your natural foot control doesn't suit the rules of a stage, you DQ in IPSC. Same thing with Muzzle Control. As you Scan for threats in a situation, if you have your gun out, it moves in the direction you are looking, because if you SEE a threat, you have to be quick about engaging it before it engages YOU. Can't do that in IPSC. Automatic DQ. How about working with cover? Should be automatic: you stay in cover unless it's time to move, then you move to other cover quickly. When it's time to shoot at some distance, you steady your pistol as best you can, utilizing the borders of your cover to do so. Window sill, doorway, tree branch, whatever, a steadied gun can give you much more accuracy if you have to take a shot in excess of 25 yards, and you might, especially if you DIDN'T bring your rifle to the gunfight. In IPSC, you put your hands where you are briefed to put them, anywhere else and you DQ. Hell, if your technique of drawing and holstering doesn't meet the Rulz, you DQ. In the real world, anyway you can get your gun out, or back into your holster quickly is all you need.

I'm a fair gunner with pistol or revolver. I achieved Master in Revolver, Pistol and Shotgun well before the end of my police career. Master means you achieved a scored 96% or better on the annual qualification course, and you did it three times consecutively, before you get to wear the device on your right breast pocket flap. All these State DPSST (POST) courses involve accuracy and time.

I've not shot IPSC, but I get a real good idea of the work involved from several of my friends who do the discipline, and by reading Jerry's excellent writing on the subject. I have passed up several invites to qualify to shoot IPSC, then compete, simply because I won't take one iota away from my training to satisfy someone else's idea of how to make you work harder on a stage to achieve a good score.

I'm armed, and I'm prepared mentally to engage threats. I would feel less prepared if I shot IPSC, even though I might be a tad faster and maybe even more accurate if I competed. I'm not on duty any more, so I have the luxury of staying concealed with my arms until surprise gives me the advantage to neutralize a threat. I never had that luxury while Protecting and Serving.

The Missing Barista case - SOLVED

Story here. This is my neighborhood shopping area she is missing from.

This smells. Smells like family violence. Stats are on my side with this guess. We get this sort of stuff here in the PacNorWest. Remember the Kyron Horman case? Pretty much everyone assumes the step-mom did it, but she still walks free because she has the best lawyer around and because the local DA won't prosecute crimes unless he's 97% sure of a conviction (he told me so ten years ago).

Update: 10192012 2214 PDT: The Gresham Police close the case with the arrest of a young neighbor of the victim, and the recovery of the body up on nearby Larch Mountain. Painstaking detective work solved this case.

The TeeVee snooze "Stylebook"

Along with the formerly-lofty profession of Journalism goes the idea of a "stylebook". A Stylebook is nothing more than a set of rules for how things will be written/spoken at whatever media outlet uses that stylebook.

A famous example, and one I've hammered here before, is the refusal to ADD something to the Stylebook, namely the proper designation of firearms when writing about them. The most egregious example is the improper use of the word "automatic" to describe any self-loading firearm, when the term properly means a firearm capable of full-auto fire, that is to say, you pull and hold the trigger once and it fires until the ammunition supply is exhausted. The proper term for a self-loader is "semi-automatic", but that doesn't sound as scary as "automatic", does it? Of course, we must scare the readers when we talk about guns, must'nt we? Another is the use of the word "clip" to mean magazine. A "clip" is a spring-steel affair (an actual clip) that hold rounds of ammunition in a certain alignment for insertion into the magazine of a firearm. Some examples are the clip of eight rounds that loads an M-1 Garand rifle, or the clip (also called a "charger") that holds five rounds for insertion into the fixed magazine of a Mosin-Nagant rifle.

Those are examples of the Stylebook being incomplete, but there are also examples of the Stylebook being full of ridiculous required items, or over-complete.

One such item is the apparent necessity, when a TeeVee news crew does location interviews at a crime scene, of finding one interviewee (almost never an actual witness, just a bystander will do for this type of interview) to put in front of the lens who will say, "Oh, the poor man, he must have had to do it to (pick your excuse) feed his family." This usually contravenes the actual reports of eyewitnesses (assuming the news crew has been competent enough to round up such reports) and/or investigators, who NEVER ascribe social motives to a suspect, but do describe the violence the suspect might have used. Of course, such social motives are never part of an actual investigation, when the suspect is caught, the defense lawyers might ascribe some such motives at trial, but that is the only correct place for them, not right along with the eyewitness reports.

The case today involved a murder outside a tavern with a bad reputation for violence. The body of a homicide by gunshot victim was found nearby, and the cops have a "cold case", so KATU News sent a crew over, and finding no eyewitnesses (neither did Portland Police Homicide), they put on the obligatory "boo-hoo apologizer" (my term) who said (paraphrasing), "how sad, terrible thing to happen, but the shooter must have been caught in hard times to have done that".

This is not an isolated incident. Local TeeVee news is about half crime reports these days, and I'd say that half the reports have a "boo-hoo apologizer" when they are broadcast. It has to be in the Stylebook.

News reports should be the "five Ws" - "who, what, where, when and why" and "how" if possible, but it ends there, or did all the News Directors forget their Journalism 101 (which I took at Mizzou, which used to have an excellent Journalism school).

Stylebooks have become an excuse to be lazy. "Journalists" hate bloggers, and now I've given them another reason to hate: this blogger accuses the profession of abandoning it's most basic standards to gain pathos, which is NEVER a substitute for reporting.

Another military retiree perk slides away

Full-career military retirees have a few perks of their service, perhaps the most important after their Retired Pay being health care support (my military health-care benny comes in behind my Medicare to pay most of Medicare's co-pays).

There is one other one that some use heavily, myself, not so much. It is the right to use military temporary quarters on posts/bases for over-night stays, subject to space-availability (after all active-duty needs are met, you can't check-in before 6pm).

I haven't used this much, because since I retired, I usually travel armed, and no arms may be carried on military bases except by those properly uniformed and under arms by military orders. One can't even get on post if armed. Used to be, one could declare the arms at the gate, be escorted to the MP/skyCop ready room, and check in the arms, but I'm told that privilege has gone away. To use military quarters, I have to find some place outside of the base to check in my weapon(s), usually a police precinct, but not all of those will offer that privilege, even to a retired fellow cop.

So, I just don't use military facilities any more. For anything.

This article says that those (unarmed retirees) who DO use military quarters on space-available basis must now pay $55 per night to use the rooms/suites. Sorry, most military posts have nice motels right outside the gate which charge little more than that (most Motel 6s are less than that), and they don't care if you carry arms or not.

BTW, just for grins, the last time I used dot-mil quarters, that overnight stay cost $8/night. That was in 1995. It was $4/night in the 1980's.

The Military marches on, and so does time, I guess.