Straits of Hormuz

With the Europeans unable to force Iran to desist from it's quest to build (and likely use) nuclear weapons, the task has fallen to the US, or as the Iranian Mullahs call us, the "Great Satan".

Trouble is, it's pretty much all or nothing with these mullahs. They don't have the nuanced way of treachery of say, the Saudi Royal House. Recently, the Iranians have been rattling the saber towards the US, talking again about closing the Strait of Hormuz, the chokepoint on the Arabian Sea where transiting oil ships have to pass within a few miles of Iran, and are under threat from Iranian military forces for hours during their transit.

The astute blogger Wretchard has written an essay for the scholarly blog Belmont Club in which he outlines the history of graduated response that the US used the last time (1984-88) that Iran made moves in the Strait of Hormuz.

I don't believe that graduated response (hit a tanker, we destroy an oil platform of yours, etc) will work, and I don't think that the Bush Administration is even thinking of such responses. My guess is that when and if Iran makes the FIRST move to damage shipping in the Gulf, the move will be their last, and the US will simply neutralize ALL their offshore power projection. Iran's navy doesn't amount to much, mostly little missile boats and the occasional MTB, and their Air Force has always been a joke (the joke goes: Why do Iran's F-14s keep getting lost when they fly practice missions? Answer: because the Guy In Back isn't a Navigator, that second crew member is a mullah with a pistol pointed at the pilot's head.)

The mullahs are fairly dense. Getting new ideas through to them is quite the chore for our diplomatic corps. My guess on plans for defending the strait of Hormuz is that our plans are as simple as the mullahs: they step out of line and they lose their entire offensive military capability, starting with their naval forces, but extending inland to any area or force that has any capability to threaten the shipping. Along in there, of course, they would also lose their nuclear facilities.

Hopefully, at that point, we would also coordinate a successful uprising of the middle and student class against the mullahs, and the Iran question would be over and done with.

So, the lesson for any Lefty readers today is this: the Bush Doctrine makes foreign policy an undergrad subject, no PhD required, just the ability to say "Yes, Sir" when the phone rings. Oh, and that ability to say "Yes, Sir" is best imbued, not in the usual Ivory Tower universities that have always been the training grounds for our diplomats before, but in the military, where such performance is the norm.

We're In It To Win It now.

Comments

[Guy S.]

I wonder if this time, knowing who is in the oval office, they will be able to walk the walk after talking the talk.