Two to blow

Yep, had to get out the Fall/Winter Storm Checklist and run it. Now I'm convinced of the early/hard winter scenario that every weather source but NOAA seems to acknowledge.

NOAA, of course, is still stuck in AlGore Glowbull Warmening mode, and all their medium-long range weather models are tainted by their messing with the 30-year data so as to try to make AGW believable. I predicted these storms last weekend, when NOAA's models were calling for warm and sunny weather for this weekend. My prediction tool? I look at the whole Pacific Ocean on a Water Vapor satellite ensemble. It clearly shows the weather circulation patterns, and the dynamics of the atmosphere. When NOAA tickles their super-computers to produce model runs based on their 30-year cycle (the Pacific Decadal Oscillation), the first 15 years of that data in the computers is worthless, because the sea-surface temperatures were "massaged" to show the infamous, and bullshit "hockey stick" warming that supposedly was coming. It didn't come, but NOAA won't flush these data sets, so ALL their prediction products which depend on them suck. For example, have the hurricane forecasts been worth a shit in the past 10-15 years? No...

The forecast details are that the PacNorWest coastal zones get a pair of strong Pacific coastal storms this weekend. The Coast Range hills will get 6-10" of rain, the Cascade Mountains about the same, and the interior valleys 2-4", maybe more. There will also be wind, and the second storm, 980 hPa central pressure, is enhanced by the core remnants of former WestPac Typhoon Pabuk, and will generate Cat1 hurricane-force gusts on the coastal headlands, maybe 50 mph gusts here in the Willamette Valley.

The deciduous (leafy) trees still have all their leaves, and a pre-storm light rain has dampened the soil, so 40-50 mph gusts will take down some trees and their close-by neighborhood power lines. It could be quite the mess around here, come dawn Monday.

I've run the Stihl chain saw recently, just laid in 72 hours of generator gas and topped off the tank in the pickup. All the outside furniture is in Winter configuration, so now it's time to see if the Oregon Ducks and Oregon State Beavers are up to playing rain games against California and Colorado Universities. Both of the local teams have home games today, and both Autzen and Reser Stadiums are open to the elements.

You may report the Schloss Rivrdog as ready for action, aye.

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Running report: 1525 PDT. Power down for about 30 seconds, but now have to spend 15 minutes resetting every thin digital in the house.....GRRRRRR

Running Report: 1840 PDT. Squall line passage. Hard to tell whether this is the cold front as well, the "back edge" is still 100 miles W on radar.

Running Report: 2140 PDT. "Back Edge" passed. Rain stopped for a few momments. I can hear the little brook 150 yards away, normally almost dry this time ofyear, roaring along, hopefully in it's banks, but probably just barely so.

 This is pretty much the end of Storm Two, # 3 is due tomorrow morning, supposed to be worse. BTW, the Oregon State QB set a school record for TD passes (6) in the rain, and right as the seond half of the Oregon Duck game getsgoing in the typhoon deluge, Oregon is up 48-3. Beavers and Ducks can do it in the water...

Comments

[Merle]

Now that I have left Virginia & returned to PA at least I don't have to stock up for hurricane season. Now it's just the typical (and familiar) winter storms that are far less threatening.

Merle