Happy Thanksgiving?

...might as well have one more holiday before the S.H.T.F. in the Middle East.

Russia WILL make some sort of military response. My guess is that it will come in some location where the Turks are not expecting it. My best guess: a radar station on Turkey's northern border with Russia will "cease to function"...

In addition, Russia's air attack forces will be put on a full Air Battle Management Plan, which is a multi-mission battle integration system involving ground and air-launched missiles, and anti-missile missiles. It probably raises the cost of battle in Syria for the Russians by a factor of five, but I believe they will do it.

No one is talking about Turkish Air Battle Management, but considering what we know, there was only 19 seconds involved in the attack on the Russian SU-24. In terms of air battle management, that is too short a time to allow for intervening command and control, so the Turkish decision to attack the Russ aircraft must have been made well before the Russ aircraft entered Turkish airspace (if it did, there is some question about that). This can only mean that the Turks pre-planned the attack on the aircraft, verifying Mr. Putin's statement.

If I am Vladimir Putin, I call up the NATO command in Brussels, and make a FIRM request (demand, really) for a meeting with the NATO command structure, and at that meeting, I demand that NATO order it's member, Turkey, to not only desist from firing on Russ aircraft, but REQUIRE Turkey to disable it's border Air Battle Management system and offer proof that it has done so. Were I Putin, I would claim this right as a Head of State reporting a violation of NATO engagement rules. NATO has engagement rules that make members take defensive actions only at their borders, and since this was an obvious planned targeting of the Russian aircraft, I believe Russia has made it's case that Turkey violated the rules and should be sanctioned for the violation.

Reality: The reality here is that there is a HUGE division between the Turkish military and the civil Ergodan government. Ergodan wants to move Turkey more in the direction of Islamism, but the Generals resist that. It is likely that this military action was taken with zero level of civilian control over the military, which just happens to be another NATO membership requirement. The remaining question seems to be whether Ergodan can control his military. If he can't, there is LOTS of precedent for military overthrow of civil government in Turkey.

Oh, and it's worth remembering that we have an entire air base in Turkey...lots of hostages are possible if Obama wanted to make an intervention. I doubt if you will hear a peep out of Obama, even if Russian cruise missiles fly towards Ankara...

 

Comments

[Polly]

The short timeframe could also mean that the decision was made locally, tho Erdogan says he authorized it personally.