According to this article, Obrador, the losing leftist candidate for President, may declare himself an "alternative President" and form a "parallel government".
That's left-speak for a revolution. Uncharacteristically without all the brandishing of arms that usually accompanies Mexican revolutions or attempts thereat, it never the less would be a revolution.
This attempt at a "soft" revolution would try to convince the vast middle class in Mexico that urging Calderon, the election winner, to resign would be preferable to the "alternative".
I travel frequently in Mexico, and wherever I go down there, I see the Mexican military. They are well-drilled at handling street-putsch action of this nature, and the moment that President Fox calls them out, the "alternative" should be finished.
The problem is, that this sets up Mexico for a guerilla war, with the leftists arming themselves and retreating to the hinterlands, like they did 20 years ago in Chiapas State (only now they would be much better armed by Hugo Chavez). That's bad for tourism, and tourism brings a lot of Gringo dollars to Mexican coffers.
I still look for some sort of Calderon compromise with Obrador, some sort of token power-sharing system, SOMETHING JUST LIKE THE SUNNIS ARE TRYING TO ENGINEER IN IRAQ.
Does anyone else see global patterns in this sore-loserman/leading to "soft" revolution/leading to takeover action?
I do. Actually, I saw these patterns two years ago immediately before our own elections.
I would disregard any travel plans to Mexico for the next two months at least, and if you must go, take enough cash and traveler's checks to see you through an unintended stay at your hotel of a week or three. If the emergency gets bad enough, the use of plastic money might get cut off.
If this situation develops into ANY sort of shooting war down there, I would also look for trouble here in the Hispanic communities. Remember that access to weapons is easier here than in Mexico itself, and there are 12 to 20 million potential revolutionaries in the USA NOW.
If trouble DOES develop south of the border, and "leaks" North, you can bet that the illegal immigration issue will be on the mind of EVERY VOTER who takes lever or pencil in hand on November 7th. Would be a bad day to be a (D)onk. Yessir.
Keep your powder dry, and enough on hand.
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